Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin Odds
After a recent rescheduling, Gregory Rodrigues and Denis Tiuliulin now clash in a UFC 292 preliminary card on Saturday.
These two middleweight finishers have stoppage-first fight styles and could produce a don’t-blink-or-you’ll-miss-it clash in today’s UFC 292 matchup.
Which dangerous 185-pounder has the edge in the ESPN-televised matchup?
Here’s my Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin betting preview for UFC 292.
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Tale of the Tape
| Rodrigues | Tiuliulin | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-5 | 10-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:47 | 6:58 |
| Height | 6’3″ | 6’1″ |
| Weight | 186 pounds | 185 pounds |
| Reach | 75 inches | 77 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/17/1992 | 5/17/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 6.09 | 5.35 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 5.82 | 6.07 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 41% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 0% |
| TD Def | 100% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.0 |
The middleweight bout between “Robocop” Rodrigues and Tiuliun is the likeliest fight to end inside the distance on Saturday (-650 consensus odds).
I couldn’t quite get there with my number (projected 85% or -567), but I’m still far higher on the finish chances than the middleweight average (60.2%).
Rodrigues has the skills advantage everywhere in this matchup, and he’s the far superior athlete too. Still, the Brazilian has shown a suspect chin, getting knocked out or wobbled in several fights, and he doesn’t have the best cardio due to his ripped physique.
The cardio dynamic plays into Rodrigues’ approach; even though he is an incredible grappler and has a significant grappling edge against most opponents, he is hesitant to wrestle because he fears draining his own gas tank.
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Rodrigues should have a significant grappling edge against Denis Tiuliun, but Robocop may not pursue the takedown right away. And he could put himself in harm’s way against another potent power puncher, seven months removed from a nasty knockout loss at UFC 283, against Brunno Ferreira.
Rodrigues has good wrestling for a jiu-jitsu practitioner (4.4 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 50% accuracy). Tiuliulin is a below-average defensive wrestler and grappler, even relative to the middleweight division. He also gives up his back easily, which plays right in Rodrigues’ style, and I’d imagine that one takedown should be the end of the fight.
And if he doesn’t, we could see a quick finish on the feet between two powerful strikers.
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Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin Pick
I don’t trust the cardio on either side of this fight, and the longer the fight goes, the more I’d be concerned about laying a significant number on a finish prop.
I projected Rodrigues as a -370 favorite in this matchup but would typically want around -330 to bet him straight or at least -345 to use him as a parlay piece, and the market has moved closer to -375.
And while I expect Rodrigues to win inside the distance (projected -220), there’s no value in the line (-225 at FanDuel).
Given the grappling differential, I was surprised to find Rodrigues by submission (projected +182, listed +225) at a much better price than his knockout prop (projected +218, listed +110).
I’ll bet that (and include it in a round-robin) in addition to parlaying the under 1.5 rounds with another total on this card.
The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues wins by submission (+225, 0.2u at DraftKings) | Parlay (+142, 0.33u at Caesars): Under 1.5 Rounds (-190) & Magny/Garry Over 1.5 Rounds (-170)
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