Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva Odds
A regular of the UFC women’s flyweight division meets one of the weight class’ hottest prospects with Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva at UFC 292 on Saturday.
The two 125-pound vets meet on the early preliminary card with Lee looking to avoid a three-fight skid and Silva looking for 10 straight wins.
Will Silva prove her favorite status, or can Lee pull off a big upset on ESPN+?
Here’s my Lee vs. Silva betting preview for UFC 292.
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Tale of the Tape
| Lee | Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-7 | 15-5-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:59 | 9:48 |
| Height | 5’6″ | 5’4″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 pounds | 125 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 69″ | 65″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 2/11/1989 | 2/3/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 5.13 | 5.47 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 3.59 | 1.90 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 66% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.04 | 1.02 |
| TD Acc | 57% | 33% |
| TD Def | 54% | 92% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.0 |
The betting odds suggest that Saturday’s matchup between Lee and Silva will reach a decision around 64.3% of the time (-180 market odds) – slightly higher than the average for women’s flyweight (60.4%). And my projections are right in line with that number.
Based on that factor alone, you should be interested in backing Lee as a significant underdog if the judges are going to get involved.
Lee is also the larger fighter (two inches taller, four-inch reach advantage) and has faced far superior competition compared to Silva, a former strawweight on a nine-fight winning streak since her 2017 regional scene loss to current No. 9 UFC strawweight contender Marina Rodriguez.
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Still, Silva is eight years younger and entering the prime of her career whereas Lee (34) is beyond the average age (30) for the division.
As I routinely mention, when there is at least an eight-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter wins 68.8% of the time (638-289) at average odds of -131 (56.8%) – about 12% over expectation.
And the age difference seems to matter more in the lighter divisions, where power matters less than speed and quickness.
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Lee vs. Silva Pick
I expect to see a close and competitive three-round decision in this fight.
However, from a moneyline perspective, I would need closer to +280 to back Lee (projected +255) in a dog or pass but potential value trap spot.
Silva by decision was my initial lean, but the odds (+110 at FanDuel) aren’t appealing.
The Pick:
- Wait for +280 on Andrea Lee
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