Kyle Nelson vs. Blake Bilder Odds
Blake Bilder looks to continue his quick UFC rise when he takes on gritty vet Kyle Nelson on the UFC 289 preliminary card on Saturday.
Bilder is a solid favorite in the featherweight fight, largely due to Nelson’s recent 1-4-1 skid.
Is this another stepping stone for Bilder, or can Nelson right the ship?
Let’s look at the matchup.
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Tale of the Tape
| Nelson | Bilder | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-5-1 | 8-0-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:14 | 9:07 |
| Height | 5’11” | 5’8″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71″ | 68″ |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 4/20/1991 | 7/12/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.85 | 6.58 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.89 | 5.05 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.71 | 0.82 |
| TD Acc | 23% | 14% |
| TD Def | 63% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 1.6 |
Bilder thrives by putting a pace on opponents, using his energy, feints, footwork and movement to overwhelm his opposition – both physically and mentally.
However, Bilder can get a bit reckless in pursuing his aggressive, taxing game plan. He’s very open to damage defensively – with a lack of head movement in the pocket – and a potent striker like Nelson can find the target and knock him down or out.
A knockout is likely the best path to victory for Nelson, the lesser grappler with significantly worse cardio.
Nelson is tough, and Bilder isn’t some big-time finisher, but I could see the American securing an attritional-based stoppage down the stretch if he can implement his game plan.
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Nelson vs. Bilder Pick
When both men are fresh, Nelson might have opportunities to land a big shot and put his opponent down. If that happens, I’ll look to live bet Bilder after Round 1 as Nelson tires and moves away from his likeliest win condition.
From a pre-fight perspective, I would consider betting Bilder to win in Round 2 (+575) or Round 3 (+950). However, there’s not enough meat on the bone to bet on either of those selections. And I could say the same about a potential same game parlay (SGP) with Bilder and the over 1.5 rounds (+120). I would rather play the round prop at that point, even though the SGP includes his decision equity.
I see an edge on Bilder by submission (projected +187, listed +225 at BetRivers) if you need action on this fight, but that’s nothing more than a round-robin piece for me.
Look for a live angle on Bilder, or pass on this prelim.
The Pick: Blake Bilder live after Round 1
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