Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Luana Pinheiro Odds
Fan favorite Michelle Waterson-Gomez will give Luana Pinheiro an opportunity for a big-name win when they clash on the UFC 287 preliminary card.
Waterson-Gomez is in a 1-4 funk, and she is now an underdog to Contender Series alum Luana Pinheiro, who’s 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Sam Hughes and Randa Markos.
Let’s break down the women’s strawweight bout.
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Tale of the Tape
| Waterson-Gomez | Pinheiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-10 | 10-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:15 | 7:21 |
| Height | 5’3″ | 5’2″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 62″ | 62″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/6/1986 | 11/18/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.60 | 4.49 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.09 | 3.40 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.43 | 4.76 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 77% |
| TD Def | 67% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.7 |
Similar to Gerald Meerschaert against Joe Pyfer, Waterson-Gomez is in the role of underdog gatekeeper against Pinheiro, who is 3-0 under the UFC banner, including her win on the Contender Series.
Pinheiro is returning from a lengthy layoff after defeating Sam Hughes in November 2021. She has been training and looking for a fight the entire time. I expect to see a career-best version of Pinehiro in the octagon on Saturday.
Conversely, Waterson-Gomez is on the back end of her career as a 37-year-old strawweight.
Pinheiro should be the faster and stronger fighter/ I expect her to win the wrestling exchanges and land the heavier damage. My primary concern with betting on Pinehrio is the gas tank. I would rate Pinehiro’s stamina, based on previous fights, as below average for the division.
It’s entirely possible that Pineheiro starts fast and wins the first seven to 10 minutes before Waterson works her way back into the fight. Waterson has faced a significantly higher level of competition throughout her career, and she’s found her way through adversity and rallied from behind to win decisions against better opponents.
Additionally, Waterson represents a significant step up in competition for Pinehiro relative to her strength of schedule.
Waterson-Gomez vs. Pinheiro Pick
This could be a levels fight for Waterson in which she puts a vet lesson on a rising talent who hasn’t seen anyone at her level before. She has a unique style and is relatively difficult to prepare for – or pull away from on the scorecards – unless you carry a significant finishing upside.
I see slight value in betting the fight to reach a decision (projected -330, listed -300 at FanDuel). However, I’m never excited even to include those types of bets in parlays since they are legitimately the worst type of sweat you can have in sports betting. And given Waterson’s age, there are additional durability/fragility concerns.
Unless you’re willing to lay the juice on the distance prop – or the over – or include those bets as parlay pieces, I will pass on betting this bout.
The Pick: Pass
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