Petr Yan vs. Sean O’Malley Odds
Sean O’Malley gets his toughest test to date when he takes on former bantamweight champion Petr Yan on Saturday’s UFC 280 main card.
Can “The Sugar Show” continue its slow and steady ascent in the UFC, or is big favorite Yan ready to offer a dose of reality to the fan favorite?
Let’s break it down.
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Tale of the Tape
| Yan | O’Malley | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-3 | 15-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:12 | 8:25 |
| Height | 5’7″ | 5’11” |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 2/11/1993 | 10/24/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.45 | 7.75 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 62% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.88 | 3.48 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 64% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.48 | 0.54 |
| TD Acc | 61% | 50% |
| TD Def | 90% | 64% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.5 |
My betting approach for Yan-O’Malley is similar to my approach for Gamrot-Dariush, which is partially why I parlayed the favorites together.
Although I like both Gamrot and Yan to win, I think you may get a better price on either or both favorites after a competitive Round 1 – before they start to take over.
Both Gamrot and Yan are slow starters to begin with, and now each is coming off of a five-round fight, so their tempo in the early stages may be underwhelming.
More specific to this matchup, Yan is the superior fighter in all aspects of MMA, but O’Malley has pronounced advantages in height (4 inches) and reach (five inches). He may be able to pull ahead early on volume.
Still, O’Malley hasn’t dealt well with pressure fighters in the past, and once Yan makes his reads, flips the switch, and starts moving forward, O’Malley could be running to avoid trouble. He hasn’t fought anyone near this level of competition and may struggle to make the proper adjustments.
O’Malley’s power has more of a cumulative effect than a single-shot impact, and when opponents are willing to walk through his reach and get inside of his range, they tend to find success.
Yan should be applying significant pressure by the second round, and I expect him to brutalize O’Malley inside the pocket with his boxing.
There’s also O’Malley’s history of leg injuries and Yan’s likely grappling upside to factor in.
I expect to see a competitive fight for about one round before Yan takes over to a significant degree, and I expect him to find opportunities to finish both on the feet and the mat if he takes it there.
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Yan vs. O’Malley Pick
Pre-fight, I would bet Yan’s moneyline straight at -245 or better. I’ll look for it live at a better price after Round 1, and I’m fine sticking it in a small parlay up to -265.
Like Gamrot, I certainly prefer the violence props here. I see value in Yan’s knockout line at +243 and his submission line at +1270 (+360 and +2000 at FanDuel).
I prefer Yan’s inside-the-distance prop (+320) at the same book. And I would bet that down to +190.
The Pick: Petr Yan wins Inside the Distance (+320, 0.5u at Fanduel), bet to +190 | Petr Yan Live after Round 1
