Makhmud Muradov vs. Caio Borralho Odds
After recently snapping a 14-fight winning streak, Makhmud Muradov looks to get back on track with a UFC 280 preliminary-card bout against middleweight Caio Borralho.
However, Borralho, who’s now 11 straight, is a solid favorite heading into this 185-pound matchup.
Can Muradov pull off the upset, or will Borralho keep his streak going?
Let’s look at the matchup.
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Tale of the Tape
| Muradov | Borralho | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-7 | 12-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:14 | 11:24 |
| Height | 6’2″ | 5’10” |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 2/8/1990 | 1/16/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.39 | 2.72 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 62% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.17 | 1.82 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.31 | 2.63 |
| TD Acc | 16% | 80% |
| TD Def | 80% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Borralho is one of the better prospects to come from the Contender Series. He offers a dominant grappling skillset with relentless pressure. And he rarely puts himself in danger.
He should have a clear grappling advantage against Muradov, and I expect him to have success landing takedowns. Borralho keeps an exhausting pace, and he should wear on and eventually finish Muradov in the second half of the fight, as Muradov eventually tires.
If Muradov can keep the fight standing, he should have a clear striking advantage. He has tighter hands and slicker combinations, and he could pick apart Borralho in extended exchanges. Still, Borralho rarely stays at striking range with his opponents; he is too adept at wrapping them up, taking them to the mat, and holding them there.
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Muradov vs. Borralho Pick
I project value in Borralho by submission (projected +322, listed +450 at BetRivers) and will sprinkle that bet. Ideally, I’d get his moneyline at -190 or better.
I’m OK with a play at -200, though, and will add more either pre-fight or live at a better price.
The Pick: Caio Borralho (-200, 0.25u at Caesars), bet to -200 | Borralho wins by Submission (+450, 0.1u at BetRivers), bet to +361 | Borralho Live after Round 1
