Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Nashville (Saturday, July 12)

Check out the Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim prediction for UFC Nashville on Saturday, July 12, with my betting preview and breakdown.

UFC Nashville’s co-main event will feature 42-year-old Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, as he will be making the walk to the octagon for the 22nd time inside the UFC organization. His opponent, rising star Gabriel Bonfim, presents a very difficult challenge for the veteran Thompson. Will Thompson be able to meet that challenge – at least a higher clip than the 23-25% implied odds the oddsmakers have assigned him?

Here’s my Thompson vs. Bonfim pick and prediction.

Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Odds, Prediction

Tale of the Tape

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Bonfim is one of the top submission artists in the UFC today, especially when looking at the weight classes above lightweight. He has shown to be incredibly opportunistic in his short UFC stint. One mistake by Wonderboy on the mat and he is very likely to find himself in a choke that he simply cannot escape.

While Bonfim averages 3.6 takedowns per 15 minutes and boasts a 76% accuracy when attempting takedowns, I would still consider him lacking an offensive wrestling prowess in comparison to some of Thompson’s former opponents.

Wonderboy is a master at distance management and has generally been very hard to hit throughout his MMA career. Even in his last fight against Joaquin Buckley, Thompson absorbed only 34 significant strikes, with Buckley landing at just a 36% clip. In round one of that fight, Buckley had a very difficult time adjusting to Thompson’s karate style, landing at an abysmal 23% rate.

Buckley did manage to land 4 of 7 takedowns in that fight, but in the first two rounds with nearly four minutes of control time, he was not credited with a single ground strike landed. Even at age 41, Wonderboy was in a great position to pull the upset as a +180 underdog heading into round 3.

Bonfim is nowhere near the level of a striker that Thompson still is, even at his advanced age. He has no choice but to pressure forward and level change relentlessly. It’s entirely possible that Thompson’s footwork and side-kicking attacks can keep the more athletic Bonfim at bay for periods, thus allowing him to cut angles and counter-strike when Bonfim ultimately does close the distance.

I am not predicting a knockout on the Thompson side, but I do think he can rack up enough damage with strikes to sway the judges’ outlook each round if Bonfim can’t hold him down for the majority of each round.

It was not that long ago when Shavkat Rakhmonov went 1-for-5 on takedown attempts against Thompson. I am not so sure Bonfim possesses the pure physicality of somebody like Rakhmonov, as Wonderboy is also quite skilled at getting back to his feet.

That fight marked the only submission loss of Thompson’s career, and now oddsmakers have lined him getting submitted as the most likely method of victory for either man on Saturday night.

Thompson vs. Bonfim, Prediction, Odds

MMA handicapping is all about numbers.

Picking Bonfim straight up to win a fight is a lot different than laying the chalk with him at -450 against a veteran as savvy as Stephen Thompson.

If Wonderboy can nullify a handful of takedowns and dictate the pace of this bout, +360 will look like an incredible value. I’ll take my chances at such a great price.

John’s Pick: Stephen Thompson +360 (DraftKings)

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