Jéssica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 315

Check out my Andrade vs. Jasudavicius prediction for UFC 315 on Saturday, May 10.

Here’s my Andrade vs. Jasudavicius prediction for tonight.

Jéssica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius Odds

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Andrade vs. Jasudavicius Pick

Jasmine Jasudavicius has a significant height and reach advantage (6″ taller, 6″ longer) over Jessica Andrade, who holds most of the violence records for the UFC women’s divisions, but is generally undersized at Flyweight; doing her best work earlier in her career at strawweight.

Still, Andrade is the far more dangerous and effective striker (+0.4 to -1.9 differential at range), and Jasudavicius likely needs to keep Andrade on bottom for significant stretches of the fight—or finish her from top position—to win this matchup; otherwise, Andrade won’t feel threatened by Jasmine’s power (45% striking accuracy) and should capitalize on her lackluster striking defense (51%).

Jasudavicius has the offensive wrestling (43% takedown accuracy on 49 attempts; 3.8 per five minutes at distance) and clinch game to neutralize Andrade on the mat or hold her up against the fence (94% control rate), and Andrade, once she is flat on her back, offers minimal resistance.

And when she does try to stand, Andrade often leaves her neck exposed, which could allow Jasudavicius to finish her with a front headlock choke (has a Brabo and an Anaconda in previous UFC wins).

I projected Jasudavicius as a -373 favorite, and would consider her moneyline up to -330 (77% implied) as a straight bet, or -350 as a parlay piece.

Alternatively, consider betting Jasudavicus on the point spread (- 3.5, -135), play her decision prop (projected -105, listed +135) or bet the fight to reach a decision (projected -163, listed -115) compared to a divisional average of 68% (-212 implied).

Lastly, look to live bet Jasudavicius after Round 1; she might eat a big bunch that steals the round for Andrade, but I’d expect her wrestling to become more effective the longer the fight goes on.

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Andrade vs. Jasudavicius Predictions

Pick:

• Jasmine Jasudavicius -3.5 Points (-140, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
• Jasmine Jasudavicius Live after Round 1

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