Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 318 (Saturday, July 19)

Check out the Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull prediction for UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19, with my betting preview and breakdown.

UFC 318 is a make or break event for the 38 year-old Patricio Pitbull. The former Bellator star is now 1-3 over his last three fights and he once again finds himself as a considerable underdog against the featherweight division’s top gatekeeper Dan Ige. Pitbull will have to return to his grappling roots to get his hand raised on Saturday, and I am not so sure he can execute that type of gameplan for the 15 minute duration at his advanced age.

Here’s my Ige vs. Pitbull pick and prediction.

Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull Odds

Tale of the Tape

_InlineAdBlock

If Patricio Pitbull is going to rebound from his UFC debut loss, he is going to have to be more aggressive.

Pitbull attempted just 10 significant strikes in round 1 in his loss to Yair Rodgriguez, ultimately credited with landing an abysmal 17 in total over the 15 minute bout.

He did attempt four takedowns in total, but landed just one. If Pitbull’s coaches want their fighter to avoid danger and potentially win minutes, they will need to encourage him to pursue his wrestling advantage much more proactively.

In Dan Ige’s prior defeats, his 58% takedown defense was tested early and often. Ige has garnered the respect of MMA fans and experts alike, but he still has suffered three defeats in his last five fights. All three of those losses involved his opponents landing takedowns, including first round takedowns on two of those ocassions.

Pitbull cannot afford another slow start. Whether it was octagon jitters in his UFC debut or simply a cautious approach due to waning confidence in his own durability that held him back, it’s imperative for Pitbull to begin this fight with some momentum.

Pitbull will need to walk a fine line between pressuring Ige all the while doing everything he can to avoid the power shots coming back in his direction. Ige has the power advantage at this point in their careers, and he undoubtedly has the durability advantage. 

Ige has never been finished in his MMA career despite fighting some of the most dangerous men in the UFC’s featherweight division.

For as dangerous as Dan Ige is, his 3.5 significant strikes landed per minute isn’t an impressive mark in terms of volume. Both men pick their shots strategically, but Ige has routinely fought on thin margins, which may make him hard to trust for some bettors as a favorite north of -200.

With that said, in recent fights, Pitbull has not reacted well to strikes that have landed cleanly. If Ige can keep the fight standing, it’s highly likely Pitbull will oblige him in the pace he wants to fight at; Pitbull is not the type of opponent to sway the judges with output.

One or two big strikes per round from Ige will make it evident he is the one doing more damage. Oddly, Ige will also enjoy the rare reach advantage here and I believe he is the craftier striker with his combinations at this stage. 

Ige vs. Pitbull Pick, Prediction

The line has ballooned in favor of Ige, as money has rightfully poured in on the favorite. I am in agreement and have found an angle to make the price more manageable if you missed Ige when he was sitting around -170.

Ige has not won a fight by submission in over six years and Pitbull has just one submission loss in over 40 professional fights. I’ll reduce the juice here by eliminating that one path to victory for “50k” Dan Ige, taking his knockout or decision “double chance” line at FanDuel at -185.

John’s Pick: Dan Ige KO/TKO or decision -185 (FanDuel)

_InlineAdBlock