Yankees vs Phillies Odds
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” awayname=”Yankees” awayslug=”new-york-yankees” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/phi.png” homename=”Phillies” homeslug=”philadelphia-phillies” date=”Monday, July 29″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB Network | Amazon Prime Video” col1text=”Run Line” col2text=”Over/Under” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-175″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”+145″ col2awaytext=”8.5″ col2hometext=”8.5″ col2awayline=”-115o / -105u” col2homeline=”-115o / -105u” col3awaytext=”+120″ col3hometext=”-145″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”bet365″ bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/240081_Bet365ALT.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gamematchup]
Yankees vs Phillies odds (via ESPN Bet) for Monday have the Phillies as -145 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-115o / -105u).
The starting pitching matchup for the opening installment of this Yankees vs. Phillies interleague series at Citizens Bank Park is a good one, as right-hander Luis Gil is set to take the mound for New York, while Philadelphia counters with right-hander Zack Wheeler.
For my Yankees vs Phillies prediction and best bet, I will be looking at the total.
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Gil is firmly in the AL Rookie of the Year race, and for good reason. The right-hander is 10-5 through 20 starts this season with a commanding 3.10 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
He enters this contest in particularly good form, allowing just one run in each of his past three starts. Gil boasts a 1.53 ERA over that stretch.
His underlying metrics suggest that this domination is going to continue as Gil ranks in the 74th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. Following Gil is a strong bullpen that ranks eighth in the league in ERA.
While New York possesses one of the league’s best lineups, it is also going against one of the league’s best pitchers. Through 123 combined career plate appearances against Wheeler, this current Yankees lineup possesses a mere .188 xBA and .288 xwOBA.
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Speaking of Wheeler, he currently possesses the second-shortest odds to win NL Cy Young. Through 20 starts, the right-hander is 10-4 with a superb 2.55 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
His analytics are equally dominant as Wheeler ranks in the 88th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Like Gil, Wheeler enters this contest in particularly great form as he has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his past five starts, posting a 1.71 ERA over that stretch.
This success is likely to continue against New York, a team he boasts a 2.92 ERA against over the past two meetings. Following Wheeler is a strong relief staff that ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
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These are two of the best lineups in baseball, so it makes sense that this total is as high as nine. However, I still think that number is an over-adjustment to that fact, especially in a Gil-versus-Wheeler matchup.
Both starting pitchers rank in the 74th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. Both bullpens also rank in the top half of the league in ERA.
Finally, the weather should also help us out as the forecast calls for winds blowing directly inward from center field.
Pick: Under 9 (-115 at bet365 | Play to -120)
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