Yankees vs Dodgers Odds | Sunday Night Baseball Predictions (6/9)

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The Yankees have lost Juan Soto (left forearm inflammation), and now they’ve lost two straight games in the process after entering a tantalizing weekend series with the Dodgers on an eight-game winning streak. They’ll aim to salvage something from this series as they send their brightest young arm to the hill against one of the best in the game.

Can Luis Gil remain dominant against a Dodgers offense that finally woke up on Saturday night, or will he be outdone by the indomitable Tyler Glasnow?

Let’s dig further into this matchup and give out a Sunday Night Baseball prediction for the Yankees vs Dodgers series finale from Yankee Stadium.

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The Yankees have crashed and burned offensively following a glorious winning streak, mustering up just four runs over two games — three of which have been driven in by Aaron Judge. It’s not for a lack of chances, however, given the Yankees racked up 10 hits to L.A.’s 11 on Saturday and came away with more hits than the Dodgers on Friday.

What’s really been an issue for New York has been walks. It has issued 13 free passes through two games, though against the Dodgers, that shouldn’t necessarily come as a surprise.

The unfortunate thing for New York on Sunday is that it will send Gil to the bump, a pitcher who has dazzled in every facet of the game except for control.

Gil’s walked two or more batters in all but two of his 12 starts this year, sitting in the 11th percentile with a walk rate over 12%. It hasn’t been the biggest concern given his strikeout rate is one of the best at 31.5%, and he’s made a habit of producing a wealth of soft contact, but the flip side of that is that most of the balls coming back into play have been in the air.

He’s only allowed four homers this season, but that could soon change at this rate — even though he’s surprisingly only allowed one in 24 2/3 innings at Yankee Stadium.

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Waiting on the other side of this matchup will be Glasnow, who’s been utterly dominant outside of a pair of stinkers at home against the Reds and Nationals. He’s struck out eight or more in seven of his last eight outings, putting up one of the very best punchout rates in the game at 33.5%, and he’s continued to roll up ground balls at an above-average clip to produce a spicy .192 Expected ERA (xERA).

The potential landmines here are the fact that the Yankees are not only ranked fifth in batting average and second in OPS to power pitchers this season, but rank fifth in run value against the slider — the lone pitch that Glasnow has had trouble with this year. It’s not as if that’s a stat driven by Soto, either, with a run value of 0 against sliders and a .265 xBA.

An important note here, too, is the fact that Glasnow will be pitching on four days’ rest for the first time all season after a couple of months where the Dodgers have been extra cautious with one of their prized offseason acquisitions.

Pitching four times on six or more days of rest, he’s registered a 2.25 ERA, and on five days’ rest he’s at 3.21. This could definitely be something to monitor.

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The Dodgers had been treading water offensively for the past week or so prior to Saturday’s explosion, but in this series, they have displayed the patience we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. Their walk rate over the past two weeks is beginning to creep up, and with 13 walks in two games, we can safely say the walk-happy Gil could be in trouble.

I’m not totally sure that L.A. will strike with homers given Gil’s been able to convert many of his fly balls into outs, but conditions for offense would once again seem to be pretty ripe given the Dodgers are fourth in OPS to power pitchers — such as the Yankees righty.

On the other side of the coin, though, I think this Yankees offense has been much better than we’re giving them credit for without Soto, judging by the number of run-scoring opportunities they’ve had in this series. Glasnow’s a hard man to get to, but I’m ever so skeptical of him here on four days’ rest given how he’s been handled this season, and with the sharp dip in his results going from six to five days off.

I’m certain the Dodgers will hang some runs against Gil, and that’s enough for me to buy into this low total.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-102)

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