The Astros and Phillies split the first two games and the World Series now shifts to Philadelphia for Game 3.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Monday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
_InlineAdBlock
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Lance McCullers Jr. Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Lance McCullers Jr. takes the mound for Houston in Game 3 and will be looking to replicate Framber Valdez’s great outing in Game 2. Since making his season debut in the middle of August after missing more than half the season with a forearm injury, McCullers has been dealing.
Including his two playoff starts, McCullers is 4-2 with a 2.30 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. His metrics are also spectacular as he boasts a .294 xwOBA, a .224 xBA and a .342 xSLG.
A big part of his success has been his ability to strike out batters, as he boasts a 25.6 K%. McCullers has collected at least six strikeouts in seven of his 10 starts, a trend that should continue against Philadelphia.
Through 59 career plate appearances against the right-hander, the Phillies roster possesses a troubling 30.5 K%. Looking at Philadelphia’s projected lineup for Game 3, five of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 21%.
Yordan Alvarez Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
We are also going to back a couple of Astros’ hitters as the Phillies are slated to go with a bullpen game. Over the final two months of the regular season, Philadelphia’s relief pitching ranked 27th in the league in ERA, 29th in WHIP, 29th in BA, 24th in SLG and 27th in wOBA.
The Phillies have gone with a bullpen game twice this postseason and have allowed a total of nine runs. The first Houston hitter we are backing is superstar Yordan Alvarez, who has been an absolute phenom at the dish all year.
In the regular season, Alvarez posted a .304 BA, .612 SLG and a 1.017 OPS. Somehow, his metrics are even better as he boasts a .462 xwOBA, a .329 xBA and a .672 xSLG.
That excellent hitting continued into the playoffs as he has gone over this fantasy total in four of the nine games he’s played.
Noah Syndergaard will start this game for the Phillies. While Syndergaard has been solid this postseason, regression is likely. The right-hander produced a troubling .325 xwOBA, a .265 xBA and a .420 xSLG this season.
When facing right-handers this season, Alvarez’s numbers jump to a .299 BA, a .627 SLG and a 1.030 OPS.
Alex Bregman Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
The other Houston hitter we are backing is Alex Bregman, who is in the middle of a five-game hitting streak and has gone over this total in four of those five contests.
This strong stretch of hitting should continue against Philadelphia’s leaky bullpen. However, Bregman will get to face Syndergaard first. In his career against the right-hander, Bregman is 1-for-2 with a single.
When facing right-handed pitching this year, Bregman boasts a .277 BA, a .504 SLG and a .881 OPS. His metrics are also outstanding as he has produced a .350 xwOBA, a .257 xBA and a .416 xSLG.
_InlineAdBlockRestart