Nationals vs Pirates Prediction, Picks & Odds (9/5)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (65-74) host the Washington Nationals (62-77) on Thursday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET on MLB Network.

Nationals-Pirates odds for Thursday have the Pirates as -115 moneyline favorites and the Nationals as -105 underdogs. The over/under is set at 8 (-115o / -105u). Jake Irvin takes the mound for Washington, while Pittsburgh hands the ball to Bailey Falter.

Find my Nationals vs Pirates prediction and picks for Thursday, plus the latest MLB odds for September 5, below.

• Nats-Pirates pick: Over 8.5 (-102 | Play to -110)

My Nationals-Pirates best bet is on the over, where I see value at -102. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

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• Nationals-Pirates Moneylines: Nationals -105 | Pirates -115
• Nationals-Pirates Over/Under: 8 total runs (-115o / -105u)
• Nats-Pirates Run Line: Nationals +1.5 (-210) | Pirates -1.5 (+175)

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Tony Sartori’s Nationals-Pirates Preview

[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Nationals Betting Preview: Jake Irvin Not in Form” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/washington-nationals” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]

Irvin has struggled this season, posting a 9-11 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP through 28 starts. His underlying metrics are even worse as the right-hander possesses a 4.26 xERA and ranks in the 34th percentile or lower in xBA, strikeout rate and barrel rate.

Entering this matchup in particularly poor form, Irvin has surrendered four or more earned runs in four of his past six starts. He is 1-3 over that stretch with a fade-worthy 6.61 ERA.

Following Irvin is a poor bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in both ERA and xFIP.

While Washington’s lineup isn’t the most powerful, it is capable of manufacturing runs. The Nationals rank in the top half of the league in BA, OBP and stolen bases.

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[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Pirates Betting Preview: Bailey Faltering Down the Stretch” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/pittsburgh-pirates” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

Those manufactured runs should be possible to create against Falter. The southpaw carries a 6-7 record with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP across 23 starts.

His analytics are even worse as Falter sports a 5.05 xERA and ranks in the bottom-third of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Like Irvin, Falter enters this matchup in particularly poor form.

The lefty has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his past four starts and has posted a troubling 7.23 ERA over that stretch. Falter also won’t get bailed out by Pittsburgh’s bullpen, which ranks in the bottom six of the league in both ERA and xFIP.

Nationals-Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis: Over/Under

This total sits at 8.5 with a modest -102 price tag on the over because neither lineup is particularly threatening. With that said, I don’t trust either of the pitching staffs.

Irvin and Falter both rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, both bullpens rank in the bottom half of the league in ERA and xFIP.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-102 at FanDuel | Play to -110)

Moneyline

I’m going to pass on the moneyline. I have no interest in laying -118 on Pittsburgh, and I also have no interest in backing Washington.

Run Line (Spread)

I’m also going to pass on the run line. I like the Nationals at +1.5, but not with the amount of juice I’d have to lay.

Over/Under

I’m betting Over 8.5 in this game.

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Nationals-Pirates Betting Trends” center=”false”][/subheader]

• 67% of the bets and 58% of the money are on the Pirates on the moneyline.
• 92% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the over.
• 65% of the bets and 54% of the money are on the Pirates to cover the run line.

Nationals Betting Trends

• Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games
• Nationals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Nationals are 40-29 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Nationals’ last 5 games

Pirates Betting Trends

• Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games
• Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Pirates’ last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Pirates’ 68 last games at home

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Nationals-Pirates Weather Forecast” center=”false”][/subheader]

[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”232018″ date=”2024-09-05″][/gameforecast]

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