Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Pick, MLB Odds

NL East rivals Washington and Philadelphia will kick off their third series of the year on Thursday with Mitchell Parker set to take on Zack Wheeler.

The Phillies have a 43-25 record against teams below .500 this season, including a strong mark of 5-1 against the Nationals. They’re gigantic favorites at -300 in Thursday’s matchup as Wheeler looks to claim his 12th win of the season.

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Nick Martin’s Nationals vs Phillies Preview

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While Parker’s overall body of work this season will be viewed as a positive within the Nationals’ organization, the 24-year-old seems to be trending in the wrong direction down the stretch. He’s pitched to an ERA of 5.57 over the last five starts and holds an xFIP of 4.98 in those outings.

He also holds a xBA of .314 and has seen his strikeout rate drop to 18% and his walk rate rise to 9%.

While he’s allowed zero earned runs over his last two starts, the underlying results from those matchups have remained shaky, with a .305 xBA and 4.94 xFIP in those matchups.

Opponents have missed just 11% of pitches in the strike zone in those starts and they’ve posted a hard-hit percentage of 38% while striking out only 18% of the time.

The Nationals’ bullpen has struggled to a 4.74 ERA over the last month, with an xFIP of 4.39.

Washington’s offense has been in a strong run of play against righties. Since July 1, it holds an 11th-ranked wRC+ of 108 versus right-handed pitching, and it’s struck out just 19.4% of the time while holding a 30.9% hard-hit rate.

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Wheeler enters this matchup priced as second favorite in the NL Cy Young race at +180, and he should have a strong chance of bolstering his case based upon his form at Citizens Bank Park this season.

Wheeler has pitched to an ERA of 2.76 in 76 1/3 innings at home this year and has allowed a WHIP of only 0.96. His 3.27 xFIP at home is also considerably better than his mark on the road, so it might be fair to say he does actually pitch a little more effectively in his ball park.

Wheeler has done a good job of getting into pitcher friendly counts once again this season and has been highly effective in those counts. Batters are hitting just .107 versus Wheeler in two strike counts, which is the best mark of any qualified starter.

Philadelphia has been one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons and has continued its excellent batting against left-handed pitching of late.

Since July 1, the Phillies rank second with a wRC+ of 136 against left-handed pitching.

Nationals vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis

Wheeler has been dominant at home this season, and while he’d never admit it, there likely is a little added juice with the Cy Young still on the table.

Whether or not that narrative means anything, his tremendous work at home this year suggests he can tame a quietly solid Nationals lineup on Thursday.

Wheeler should have a great chance of getting some early run support considering Parker’s ugly underlying form of late and the way that Philadelphia has mashed lefties all season long.

At -125, there looks to be value backing Wheeler to earn another win, and I would bet anything better than -130.

Pick: Zack Wheeler to Record a Win (-125 at bet365 | Play to -130)

Moneyline History

Total (Over/Under) History

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