The Houston Astros host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 23, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SN1 and MLB.TV.
The Astros enter as -115 favorites on the moneyline with the over/under sitting at 8.5.
Find my Blue Jays vs Astros prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
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- Blue Jays vs Astros Pick: Bowden Francis Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100)
My Blue Jays vs Astros best bet is Toronto pitcher Bowden Francis to stay under his earned runs prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Blue Jays vs Astros Odds, Spread, Line
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Blue Jays vs Astros Picks, Best Bet
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I tried this angle on Tuesday, and it failed immediately with Chris Bassitt allowing three runs in the first inning.
But there was more to Bassitt’s disappointing outing.
He was extremely unlucky on balls in play, allowing a .318 batting average compared to a .209 xBA. Bassitt limited Houston to a meager 15% hard-hit rate and an 83.2 mph average exit velocity. He gave up four hits in that fateful first inning, but only two left the infield. The Astros scored their first run on a 47.4 mph roller to third base.
Bassitt basically shut Houston down after the first inning, tossing four scoreless frames. He ceded one more run at the tail end of his outing. The line looks bad (5.1 IP, 4 ERs, 7 H), but Bassitt easily could’ve fared better.
The case for Francis is similar.
He’s tough on righties and struggles against lefties, but Houston will likely have just a single left-handed bat in the lineup. Francis struck out 27.6% of righties in 2024, compared to just 16.6% of lefties.
He limited damage equally to both sides last season, but the results have changed this year.
Francis has allowed a massive .315 ISO and a .537 SLG to left-handed hitters in 2025. They’ve also tagged him for five home runs. Righties have a perfect .000 ISO and a .154 SLG. They’ve gone 4-for-30 against him, and every hit has been a single.
Opponents have strategically stacked their lineups with lefties against Francis through four starts. He’s faced 61 lefties to just 30 righties.
The Astros don’t have that luxury, as Yordan Alvarez is their only lefty on the active roster. Backup catcher Victor Caratini is a switch-hitter. Caratini is known more for his glove and would be a significant downgrade at the plate from Yainer Diaz if he’s in the lineup.
Pick: Bowden Francis Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100)
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Blue Jays vs Astros Betting Trends to Watch
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