PRO Projections’ top pick to hit a home run Friday is in Tigers vs. Reds — potentially a perfect setup for July 5.
Tonight’s location is Great American Ball Park, known for being a launching pad for home-run hitters. This venue’s hitter-friendly dimensions have traditionally boosted power hitters’ stats, making it a prime location for bettors targeting home-run props.
The MLB home-run market is just one of the variety of props that flash in PRO when consensus odds are longer than our analytically-driven PRO Projections, opening up valuable betting opportunities.
Let’s dive into which hitter in Tigers vs. Reds is PRO Projections’ best bet and largest edge to hit a homer tonight.
Tigers vs Reds Props | MLB Home Run Projections & Best Bet
Cincinnati’s Jake Fraley is playing in a hitter-friendly park tonight, and the numbers are in his favor.
According to our PRO Projections, Fraley’s projection for home runs stands at 0.21, a nuanced figure leveraged from our proprietary advanced betting models.
Despite Fraley’s homer odds sitting as long as +830 at FanDuel, our models highlight an 8.2% edge. This discrepancy between market odds and PRO Projections presents a noteworthy opportunity, signaling that the market may be underestimating Fraley in his home park.
These projections are generated by models that take into account a myriad of factors, including player performance trends, matchup dynamics and situational variables. Therefore, this 8.2% edge reflects mispricing by the market that can be exploited by savvy bettors looking for value on the July 5 MLB board.
PRO MLB Props Pick: Jake Fraley HR (+830)
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.