The New York Yankees host the Texas Rangers on May 20, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on YES and Rangers Sports Network.
Find my Rangers vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
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- Rangers vs Yankees pick: Yankees -1.5 (+106 | Play to +100)
My Rangers vs Yankees best bet is Yankees -1.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rangers vs Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total
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Rangers vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| LHP Patrick Corbin (TEX) | Stat | RHP Will Warren (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.35 / 4.22 | ERA /xERA | 4.61 / 4.25 |
| 4.73 / 4.43 | FIP / xFIP | 3.23 / 3.17 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 10.2% | K-BB% | 18.4% |
| 37.7% | GB% | 46.4% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 105 | Location+ | 103 |
Tony Sartori’s Rangers vs Yankees Betting Insights
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Relative to years past, left-hander Patrick Corbin has improved his play in 2025. However, his underlying metrics suggest that he is due to regress to the status quo sooner rather than later.
Corbin ranks in the 39th percentile in expected ERA and 36th percentile in expected batting average.
If Corbin regresses and gets chased early, his bullpen is unlikely to bail him out. The Rangers’ relief staff ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA and expected fielding independent pitching.
The pitching is likely to struggle against the Yankees’ powerhouse lineup, but Texas’ own lineup may fare even worse. Entering this matchup, the Rangers rank in the bottom five in runs scored per game, hits per game, on-base percentage and OPS.
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Texas’ woes at the plate create a large hitting discrepancy between these two teams. Arguably the best lineup in baseball, New York ranks in the top two in runs scored per game, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS.
This success at the plate is likely to continue against Corbin. Through 147 combined plate appearances against the southpaw, the current Yankees roster boasts a .308 batting average, .538 slugging percentage and .391 weighted on-base average.
Not only will New York possess the hitting advantage, but it will also possess the pitching advantage. Right-hander Will Warren takes the mound for the Yankees, and he outranks Corbin in both fielding independent pitching and expected fielding independent pitching.
Even if the starting pitching matchup is a wash, the relief pitching matchup won’t be. New York’s bullpen outranks the Rangers’ in ERA, FIP, xFIP and WAR.
Rangers vs Yankees Predictions and Picks
The primary concern with backing the Yankees in this contest is Warren. That said, he has begun to turn his play around recently and is going against a poor Rangers lineup.
Over his past three starts, Warren sports a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Finally, five of New York’s past six wins have come by at least a two-run margin.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+110 | Play +100)
Moneyline
I like New York to win, but find more value in the run line.
Run Line (Spread)
As mentioned, I’m betting the Yankees run line at +106.
My Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+110)
Over/Under
I lean toward the Over, but don’t want to fade Warren against Texas.
Rangers vs Yankees Betting Trends
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