The New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 30, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Read my Rays vs Yankees prediction and MLB over/under pick below.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”My Rays vs Yankees Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tb.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/tampa-bay-rays” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/new-york-yankees” link2follow=”true”][/subheader]
Rays vs Yankees pick: Over 9 (-105, BetMGM)
Rays vs Yankees Odds, Spread
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Rays vs Yankees Run Line: Rays +1.5 (-185); Yankees -1.5 (+150)
Rays vs Yankees Totals: 9 (O -115 / U -105)
Rays vs Yankees Moneyline: Rays +115; Yankees -135
Rays vs Yankees Best Bet: Over 9
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Rays vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zack Littell (TBR) | Stat | RHP Will Warren (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-8 | W-L | 6-5 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 3.72 / 4.57 | ERA / xERA | 4.82 / 4.07 |
| 4.92 / 4.21 | FIP / xFIP | 3.71 / 3.57 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.44 |
| 13.2% | K-BB% | 15.9% |
| 41.3% | GB% | 43.8% |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 104 | Location+ | 100 |
Sean Zerillo’s Rays vs Yankees Betting Preview
The weather should be hitter-friendly in the Bronx on Wednesday, with 91-degree temperatures and five-to-seven MPH winds out toward left field.
Rays starting pitcher Zack Littell (4.56 xERA, 4.21 xFIP, 13.2% K-BB, 4.56 botERA) is struggling. He’s running into a home-run problem (1.82 HR/9), which is a brutal issue to have at Yankee Stadium (+21% HR Factor over the past three seasons).
I’m high on Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren, but I think he’s running out of gas. He’s at 104 ⅔ innings this season after throwing a combined 132 ⅓ across all levels last year.
| Will Warren | ERA / xFIP | K-BB% | Pitching+ / botERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Through June | 4.37 / 3.17 | 19.5% | 105 / 3.60 |
| July | 6.29 / 4.87 | 5.2% | 98 / 4.00 |
Throw in New York’s slumping bullpen (4.32 xFIP over the past month, 24th), and I project 9.66 runs for this game.
I’d bet the Over 9 at -115 or better.
Pick: Over 9
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Rays vs Yankees Betting Trends
[bettingtrends title=”” gameid=”258357″ date=”20250730″][/bettingtrends]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Rays vs Yankees Weather” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”258357″ date=”20250730″][/gameforecast]