The New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 3, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network
Find my Rays vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Editor’s Note: This Rays vs Yankees preview was written before the Yankees scratched scheduled starter Clarke Schmidt due to left side soreness. Left-hander Ryan Yarbrough will open a bullpen game for the Yankees.
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- Rays vs Yankees pick: Yankees -1.5 (+112 | Play to +105)
My Rays vs Yankees best bet is the Yankees to cover the run line (-1.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Rays vs Yankees Odds
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Rays vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zack Littell (TBR) | Stat | LHP Ryan Yarbrough (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | W-L | 0-1 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 5.03 / 5.42 | ERA /xERA | 4.11 / 3.68 |
| 5.53 / 4.48 | FIP / xFIP | 4.88 / 3.92 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 10.1% | K-BB% | 15.4% |
| 40.4% | GB% | 33.3% |
| 83 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 106 | Location+ | 105 |
Tony Sartori’s Rays vs Yankees Preview
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Right-hander Zack Littell takes the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays, looking to avoid another poor outing. Through six starts this season, Littell is 1-5 with a 5.03 ERA.
His underlying metrics are even worse. Entering this matchup, the right-hander owns a 5.42 expected ERA (xERA) and ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in expected batting average (xBA), strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
These struggles are likely to continue against the New York Yankees. Through three career starts against New York, Littell has a 5.71 ERA.
Following Littell is a fade-worthy bullpen. This season, Tampa Bay’s relief staff ranks 20th in fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 24th in wins above replacement (WAR).
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Yankees Betting Preview: Schmidt Set for Positive Regression” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/new-york-yankees” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
In those same categories, the Yankees’ bullpen ranks fourth and fifth, respectively. However, this relief may not be needed until late, given that right-hander Clarke Schmidt takes the mound for New York.
While Schmidt has experienced some turbulent results thus far, his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is likely. He ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
This expected regression is likely to occur against Tampa Bay, a team Schmidt has dominated over the past two seasons. He boasts a 0.96 ERA over his past three starts against the Rays.
This pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support. Entering this matchup, the Yankees rank first in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs.
Rays vs Yankees Prediction, Spread Pick
New York boasts the best lineup in baseball, which is likely to thrive against a struggling Littell. Through 64 combined plate appearances against the right-hander, the current Yankees roster owns a .327 batting average, .635 slugging percentage and .460 weighted on-base average.
Meanwhile, Schmidt is due for positive regression, which is likely to occur against a Rays team he has handled effectively. Additionally, Tampa Bay currently ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs.
Add in the bullpen advantage, and there is little reason to believe New York won’t win this game by multiple runs.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+112 | Play to +105)
Moneyline
I like New York to win, but find more value in the run line.
Run Line (Spread)
As mentioned, I’m betting Yankees run line at +112.
My Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+112)
Over/Under
I lean toward the Over, but don’t want to fade Schmidt against Tampa.
Rays vs Yankees Betting Trends
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