The Houston Astros host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 29, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SCHN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Rays vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
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- Rays vs Astros picks: Over 8
My Rays vs Astros best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Rays vs Astros Odds
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Rays vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shane Baz (TBR) | Stat | RHP Ryan Gusto (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 4.94 / 4.01 | ERA /xERA | 4.58 / 4.47 |
| 4.92 / 4.08 | FIP / xFIP | 4.57 / 4.34 |
| 1.39 | WHIP | 1.53 |
| 12.9% | K-BB% | 13.7% |
| 49.4% | GB% | 35.2% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 97 | Location+ | 95 |
Tony Sartori’s Rays vs Astros Preview
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tb.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/tampa-bay-rays” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
After what appeared to be a breakthrough season for Shane Baz in 2024, he’s regressed this year. Through 10 starts, the former first-round draft pick owns a 4.94 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest these struggles are likely to continue. Baz ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Following Baz is a bullpen that appears due for regression. Entering this matchup, Tampa Bay’s relief staff ranks 21st in fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 22nd in wins above replacement (WAR).
The good news for this pitching staff is that it should receive plenty of run support against Spencer Gusto.
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It’s been a difficult rookie campaign for Gusto. Through 12 appearances, the right-hander owns a 4.58 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.
His analytics are similarly poor. This season, Gusto ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Like Baz, the positive news for Gusto is that he should receive an abundance of run support. Houston ranks in the top half of the league in runs per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
The current Astros roster also owns a .252 expected batting average (xBA), .390 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and .309 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) through 37 combined plate appearances against Baz.
Weather conditions should also contribute to a high-scoring game.
The roof is expected to be open, and the forecast calls for a humid evening with winds blowing out toward left-center.
Rays vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
Beyond the weather, several factors support a play on the over in this contest. Neither starting pitcher has performed well this season, both statistically and analytically.
Both lineups are capable of producing runs, especially Houston’s.
Additionally, the Astros’ current roster possesses strong underlying metrics against Baz.
Pick: Over 8 (-115, Play to -120)
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Moneyline
I lean toward Houston, but I don’t want to back Gusto.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Houston to cover, but I’m staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I’m betting over 8.
Rays vs Astros Betting Trends
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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Rays vs Astros Weather” center=”false”][/subheader]
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