The Boston Red Sox (52-45) host the Tampa Bay Rays (50-46) in the MLB this afternoon. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
The Red Sox are -120 favorites as they look to complete a 4-game sweep of the Rays at Fenway Park, with Tampa Bay listed as +100 underdogs. The the over/under is set at 9 total runs.
Continue below for our Rays vs Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, July 13.
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- Rays vs Red Sox pick: Under 9 (-120)
My Rays vs Red Sox best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Red Sox Odds
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Rays vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Ryan Pepiot (TBR) | Stat | RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.32/4.01 | ERA / xERA | 3.27/4.38 |
| 4.29/3.89 | FIP / xFIP | 4.38/4.26 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 16.2% | K-BB% | 8.6% |
| 38.3% | GB% | 53.1% |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 101 | Location+ | 101 |
Rays vs Red Sox Preview, Picks
Boston enters Sunday on a nine-game winning streak after taking the first three games of the series by scores of 4-3, 5-4, and a 1-0 shutout yesterday.
That most recent game featured a complete-game gem from Garrett Crochet and continued a trend of tight, low-scoring contests between these AL East rivals.
Game 4 features a strong pitching matchup that supports a bet on the Under 8.5.
Brayan Bello takes the mound for the Red Sox after throwing his first career complete game. He’s been in excellent form, posting a 2.18 ERA over his last five starts.
On the other side, Ryan Pepiot becomes just the fourth Rays pitcher ever to make 20 starts before the All-Star break—an indicator of his consistency and the trust Tampa Bay has in his arm.
But the real edge for under bettors comes from a short-term situational angle: the “Under After Low-Scoring Game in Series” system, developed by Evan Abrams.
This system focuses on games where both teams are coming off low-scoring efforts (two runs or fewer), particularly within the same series.
These spots often signal a combination of strong pitching, stagnant offenses, or unfavorable hitting conditions—and more importantly, they highlight where betting markets may not adjust totals downward fast enough.
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Rays vs Red Sox Best Bet
- Under 9 (-120)
Rays vs Red Sox Betting Trends
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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Rays vs Red Sox Weather” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”257654″ date=”20250713″][/gameforecast]
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