Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Pick, Odds Today

The Boston Red Sox (51-45) host the Tampa Bay Rays (50-45) on Saturday, July 12. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NESN.

The Rays find themselves as +150 moneyline underdogs after dropping a tough 5-4 loss in the opener, despite holding a late lead. The Red Sox, who have now won eight straight, are -178 moneyline favorites with a game total set at 8.

Read our Rays vs Red Sox prediction and pick for Saturday below.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Lines

[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tb.png” awayname=”Rays” awayslug=”tampa-bay-rays” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bos.png” homename=”Red Sox” homeslug=”boston-red-sox” date=”Saturday, July 12″ time=”4:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-135″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”+115″ col2awaytext=”8″ col2hometext=”8″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+150″ col3hometext=”-178″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/463646_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars”][/gamematchup]

_InlineAdBlock

[expertpickswidget league=”mlb” gameid=”257643″ date=”20250712″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

Rays vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick, Betting Analysis

Tampa Bay will turn to Shane Baz, who owns a 3-0 record with a 2.96 ERA in four career starts against Boston.

On the other side, All-Star Garrett Crochet makes his first start against the Rays, looking to close out a strong first half.

This game sets up nicely for Evan Abrams‘ Low Support Division Dog model.

Division underdogs like Tampa Bay, especially when backed by fewer than 30% of bets yet showing no significant line drift, often point to quiet confidence from sharp bettors.

Add the divisional familiarity and underdog value on a team with the better starting pitcher in the matchup, and the model says we should expect the Rays to bounce back.

[betlabsembed systemid=”1474764″ systemname=”Evan Abrams – Low Support Division Dog” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20number%20of%20bets%20compared%20to%20the%20day’s%20average%20is%20between%201.01%20and%203.94%22%2C%22the%20moneyline%20change%20from%20open%20to%20close%20is%20between%20-200%20and%200%22%2C%22the%20moneyline%20%25%20is%20between%208%25%20and%2029%25%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20a%20Division%20game%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Dog%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$16.409″ record=”946-1186-0″ winpct=”44%”][/betlabsembed]

Pick: Rays ML (+165)

[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/07/raysredsoxqs7122025.jpg” buttontext=”Tail This Pick at BetMGM” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1680388617&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]

Rays vs Red Sox Betting Trends

[bettingtrends title=”” gameid=”257643″ date=”20250712″][/bettingtrends]

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Rays vs Red Sox Weather” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”257643″ date=”20250712″][/gameforecast]

[procard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/736824_ActionPRO_promo_1500x844.jpg” cta=”Premium picks, tools & analysis” firstupsell=”Track & follow smart money” secondupsell=”Biggest player prop edges” thirdupsell=”Real-time expert pick alerts” buttontext=”SAVE 66% NOW!” buttonurl=”/pricing”][/procard]