St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Pick, MLB Odds Today

The St. Louis Cardinals (5-6) and Pittsburgh Pirates (4-8) play the rubber match of their three-game series at PNC Park on Wednesday afternoon. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet-PIT and FanDuel Sports Midwest.

The Cardinals put an end to a four-game losing streak on Tuesday as they were able to put up five runs on Paul Skenes. The Cardinals turn to Erick Fedde in the series finale while the Pirates give the ball to Mitch Keller.

Below you can find my Cardinals vs Pirates predictions and picks for Wednesday, plus the latest MLB odds, public betting trends and more.

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• Cardinals vs Pirates pick: Over 7.5 (-118 | Play to -130)

My Cardinals vs Pirates best bet is Over 7.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

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Cardinals vs Pirates Odds, Spread, Pick

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• Cardinals vs Pirates Moneyline: Cardinals -118, Pirates -102
• Cardinals vs Pirates Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 (+142), Pirates +1.5 (-170
• Cardinals vs Pirates Total: 7.5 (-118o / -102u)
• Cardinals vs Pirates Best Bet: Over 7.5

Cardinals vs Pirates Preview, Prediction

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Right-hander Erick Fedde takes the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, and he should serve as a good fade candidate. It’s been a difficult start to 2025 for Fedde, who owns a 7.00 ERA through his first two outings.

His underlying metrics suggest that further difficulties lie ahead. Entering this matchup, Fedde ranks in the 34th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and barrel rate.

Following the right-hander is a bullpen that has also struggled this season. St. Louis’ relief staff ranks 26th in ERA and 25th in xFIP.

The good news for this pitching staff is that it should receive plenty of run support. The Cardinals have been one of the best hitting teams in baseball thus far, ranking in the top two in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.

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St. Louis’ success at the dish is likely to continue against right-hander Mitch Keller, who gets the ball for Pittsburgh. Like Fedde, Keller has struggled in 2025.

The right-hander has posted a 7.45 ERA and 1.86 WHIP through his first two starts. Also like Fedde, Keller’s analytics suggest that things are not going to improve any time soon.

The former second-round draft pick ranks in the 20th percentile in xERA and the seventh percentile in xBA. These woes are likely to continue against the Cardinals, a team Keller is 0-2 against over the past three meetings with a 5.00 ERA.

Following Keller is a relief staff that, like St. Louis’, has struggled this season. The Pirates’ bullpen ranks 20th or lower in ERA, FIP, xFIP and WAR.

Cardinals vs Pirates Over/Under Prediction, Analysis

There are a lot of similarities between these two teams in this matchup. Both starting pitchers have been terrible to start 2025 and possess concerning underlying metrics.

At the same time, both bullpens have struggled in relief of these starting pitchers. While St. Louis clearly boasts the stronger lineup, this current Pittsburgh roster sports a .421 SLG through 59 combined plate appearances against Fedde.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-124 | Play to -130)

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Moneyline

I lean toward St. Louis but don’t want to lay the juice with Fedde.

Pick: Pass

Run Line (Spread)

I like the Cardinals to cover, but I don’t want to bet on them for the same reason listed above.

Pick: Pass

Over/Under

As mentioned, I’m betting Over 7.5 at -124.

Cardinals vs Pirates Betting Trends

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