The Kansas City Royals (25-20) host the St. Louis Cardinals (24-20) on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSMW and MLB.TV.
Find my Cardinals vs Royals prediction and pick for the first five innings (F5) below.
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- Cardinals vs Royals Pick: Royals F5 -0.5 (-115 · Play to -120)
My Royals vs. Cardinals vs best bet is on the Royals to cover the first five innings (F5) spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Royals Odds
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Cardinals vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| Andre Pallante (STL) | Stat | Cole Ragans (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 4.36/5.06 | ERA /xERA | 4.20/2.31 |
| 5.01/3.72 | FIP / xFIP | 2.21/2.25 |
| 1.38 | WHIP | 1.23 |
| 6.5 | K-BB% | 30.4 |
| 65.2 | GB% | 39.1 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 104 | Location+ | 100 |
Cardinals vs Royals Preview, Predictions
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The Cardinals come into this series on fire, having won nine of their last 10 games. Their hot streak has been spurred by great production at the dish.
The Cardinals rank fourth in the majors in team batting average, and that’s primarily due to the number of balls they put in play. They hold the sixth-lowest strikeout rate and the seventh-lowest whiff rate.
However, their barrel rate, which is the fourth-lowest in the majors, is a concern — especially with Cole Ragans on the mound for the Royals. Ragans has been one of the best left-handers in the game since he burst onto the scene in 2023.
The Royals’ lethal lefty has had blips that have inflated his counting stats but is due for significant positive regression, as he’s been very tough to square up. Ragans’ strikeout rate sits in the 98th percentile, and that percentile is in line with his xBA and xERA.
With the Cardinals due to take a step back offensively and Ragans primed for a dominant outing, look for St. Louis’ bats to be quiet through the first half of this one.
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On the other side of this matchup, the Royals come in a bit cold after losing four of their last five games. Their lineup has been a stark contrast to the Cardinals, as they’ve been outscored, 24-14, over their last five games.
However, their lineup shows a lot of similarities to the Cardinals; we just haven’t seen the results yet. The Royals are also a team that puts the ball in play a great deal of the time, holding the sixth-lowest whiff rate and the second-lowest strikeout rate.
They also don’t put the ball in play with much authority, ranking 28th in barrel rate. Although, all of those balls in play are bound to find some grass, as their xBA sits 13 points higher than their team batting average.
Their matchup tonight should produce some of that positive regression.
The Royals get to face Andre Pallante, who feeds right into their hitting strengths. Pallante doesn’t miss bats and relies on generating groundballs, which he does arguably better than anyone in the game.
However, the Royals have the fourth-lowest groundball rate in the majors, so this contrast should play in their favor, especially with Pallante’s strikeout total at 2.5.
We should see the Royals have plenty of traffic on the bases in the early going. The key is for them to cash in.
Cardinals vs Royals Prediction, F5 Betting Analysis
This is a classic buy-low, sell-high matchup, and the pitchers only amplify it. Ragans and the Royals are due for more success and should generate it against Pallante.
While St. Louis is seeing the ball well, Ragans will be the best pitcher it’s faced during its recent streak. He should get plenty of run support in the early going as he stifles the Cards first few times through.
Back the Royals to be up halfway through this one.
Pick: Royals F5 -0.5 (-115)
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Cardinals vs Royals Betting Trends
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