The Colorado Rockies host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 21, 2025. First pitch from Coors Field is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSMW.
The Cardinals just got swept in Arizona and will try to bounce back against the lowly Rockies. Michael McGreevy will get the ball for St. Louis, and Austin Gomber will start for Colorado.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cardinals vs Rockies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”My Cardinals vs Rockies Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/stl.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/st.-louis-cardinals” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/colorado-rockies” link2follow=”true”][/subheader]
- Cardinals vs Rockies picks: Under 11.5 (-106, DraftKings)
My Cardinals vs Rockies best bet is Under 11.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Cardinals vs Rockies Odds, Spread, Best Bet
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Cardinals vs Rockies Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 (-105); Rockies +1.5 (-115)
Cardinals vs Rockies Total: 11.5 (O -115/ U -105)
Cardinals vs Rockies Moneyline: Cardinals -160; Rockies +135
Cardinals vs Rockies Best Bet: Under 11.5
Cardinals vs Rockies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael McGreevy (STL) | Stat | LHP Austin Gomber (COL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 0-3 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 4.22 / 4.90 | ERA / xERA | 5.65 / 5.34 |
| 3.37 / 4.04 | FIP / xFIP | 5.57 / 5.81 |
| 1.03 | WHIP | 1.60 |
| 15.1 | K-BB% | 5.4 |
| 34.8 | GB% | 32.7 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 88 |
| 116 | Location+ | 99 |
Cardinals vs Rockies Preview
Even though Coors Field is a hitter’s paradise —therefore, a pitcher’s nightmare — this 11.5 line might be overestimating both teams’ offenses at the moment.
Despite playing in these conditions at home, the Rockies rank dead last in the majors in wRC+ with 75. The Cardinals usually do much better, but in July, they are 20th in wRC+ (91), 21st in average (.235) and 25th in slugging percentage (.371).
Coors Field is at the top of Baseball Savant’s Park Factors regarding run production, and that impacts everyone’s numbers, but St. Louis scored just seven runs combined in the three games of their recent trip to Arizona.
Rockies starter Austin Gomber has given up two or fewer runs in three of his last four outings, and the Cardinals lineup does worse against southpaws, ranking 18th in wRC+ and 24th in slugging versus them in MLB.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation to go with the under tonight.
Cardinals vs Rockies Prediction, Betting Analysis
[betlabsembed systemid=”1486200″ systemname=”Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5)” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20was%20played%20during%20the%202025%20or%202024%20or%202023%20season%22%2C%22the%20full%20game%20o%2Fu%20change%20from%20open%20to%20close%20is%20between%20-1%20and%20-0.5%22%2C%22the%20juice%20%20is%20between%20-149%20and%20-120%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%203.5%20and%206.5%22%2C%22the%20average%20wind%20speed%20is%20between%204%20and%209%20mph%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$1″ record=”276-213-5″ winpct=”56%”][/betlabsembed]
This MLB first five innings system, titled “Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5),” is built around early-game environments where oddsmakers and sharp bettors anticipate limited scoring.
The foundation starts with a low closing total —between 3.5 and 6.5— indicating a strong pitcher’s duel or poor hitting conditions.
If the full game total has moved down between half a run and one run from open to close, it signals smart money pushing the market toward the under.
The model further refines this edge by requiring the juice on the under to remain within a sharp range, typically between -149 and -120, avoiding inflated pricing that could distort value.
Games played in modest wind conditions —between four and nine miles per hour— are included, as they often suppress offense without triggering dramatic public reaction.
By isolating games across the past three seasons and targeting first-half unders in tightly lined, downward-trending markets, this system captures value where the market signals defensive control without overreaction.
Pick: Under 11.5 (-106, DraftKings)
Cardinals vs Rockies Betting Trends
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