Rockies vs. Marlins Odds
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If it weren’t for the Chicago White Sox, either the Colorado Rockies or Miami Marlins would be the worst team in baseball. On Thursday, these two will duel.
Peter Lambert will start for the Rockies, while Edward Cabrera will go for the Marlins.
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Despite playing in the most hitter-friendly park in the league, the Rockies don’t have many good hitters. Miami hasn’t exactly blown teams away either and with reasonable enough pitching going in this game, runs should be at a premium.
Lambert has effectively operated as an opener and is yet to pitch into the fourth inning this season. He has only walked four batters and has struck out 15. His bread-and-butter has been keeping the ball on the ground as his ground-ball rate ranks in the 79th percentile. He has also fared well when it comes to limiting barrels. Hard contact has been an issue, at times, but otherwise, he can hold a subpar lineup in check.
The Rockies only have three bats with an xwOBA over .330 against righties — that means six of their nine hitters are below average. Colorado strikes out over 27% of the time when an opponent against right-handed pitchers and has a walk rate under 8%. In short, Cabrera will get favorable results against this subpar lineup.
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The Rockies’ relief staff doesn’t have strong numbers as a whole, but Colorado does boast four relievers with an xFIP under 4.00. And, of course, being away from Coors will help in this matchup. If Lambert can stretch out and throw a full three innings, as he has done twice in his past four outings, he’ll be able to pass the ball to some of Colorado’s more reliable relievers.
Now, Cabrera has the ability to be elite. He has a tendency to walk batters from time-to-time, but has gotten that number below 10% this year. His 5.28 ERA against a 3.41 xERA indicates favorable future results. His Average Exit Velocity is under 84 mph and he also boasts an elite strikeout rate (over 30%).
The Marlins have a wRC+ of 80 with a sub-7% walk rate and a 21.2% strikeout rate. However, the Marlins have the highest ground-ball rate in MLB by over 5% (52.3%), which is abysmal and should lean into one of Lambert’s strongest qualities.
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Simply put, these teams are atrocious at hitting the ball. Both pitchers can keep the ball on the ground, and Cabrera should rack up strikeouts with ease. Additionally, the bullpens have enough to keep hitters in check. Take the under in Miami and play it to 7.5.
Pick: Under 8.5 | Play to 7.5
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