Rays vs Orioles Monday Odds & Predictions (6/10)

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Rays vs Orioles odds for Monday have the Orioles as -142 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7 (-112o / -108u).

The starting pitching matchup for the Rays vs Orioles series finale is a good one, as right-hander Corbin Burnes is set to take the mound for Baltimore while Tampa returns with right-hander Ryan Pepiot. The Rays, notably, are looking to avoid a four-game sweep.

For my Rays vs Orioles prediction, I will be looking at the total — find that in my MLB betting preview for this AL East finale below.

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Pepiot continues to dominate the league, something he has done since he made his debut in 2022. Through 10 starts this season, the right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.

He’s been particularly dialed in over his past seven starts, posting a 3-0 record with a 3.28 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over that stretch. There were seven or fewer total runs scored in four of those seven outings.

Pepiot’s underlying metrics suggest further positive regression is likely, given he sports a 2.87 xERA and .197 xBA. However, run support is certainly not guaranteed.

This season, Tampa Bayn ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

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Those woes at the dish are likely to continue against Burnes, one of MLB’s premier pitchers. Through 13 starts, the right-hander is 6-2 with a commanding 2.26 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

His underlying metrics are just as dominant as Burnes ranks in the 83rd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and hard-hit rate. Following Baltimore’s ace is a strong bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

The main concern with taking the Under in this potential pitching duel is the Orioles’ fantastic lineup. With that said, not a single member of this team has ever faced Pepiot prior to Monday, so it is likely going to take a few rotations through the batting order to attempt to figure him out.

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Burnes and the Baltimore bullpen should have no issue holding Tampa to just a couple of runs. The question that remains is how will Pepiot handle this powerhouse Orioles lineup?

I think he will do just fine, given how well he has been throwing the ball over his past seven starts. Pepiot’s underlying metrics suggest even further positive regression is likely, which could come to fruition against a lineup that has never seen him before.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-115 at BetMGM | Play to -120)

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