The Philadelphia Phillies host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT and NBC Sports Philadelphia.
Find my Pirates vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
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- Pirates vs Phillies picks: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Doubles (+425)
My Pirates vs Phillies best bet is Bryce Harper to record a double. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Phillies Odds
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Pirates vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Andrew Heaney (PIT) | Stat | LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.15 / 4.32 | ERA /xERA | 5.91 / 2.91 |
| 4.19 / 4.20 | FIP / xFIP | 1.88 / 2.97 |
| 1.12 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 10.7% | K-BB% | 18.6% |
| 45.4% | GB% | 51.7% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 99 | Location+ | 109 |
Alex Kolodziej’s Pirates vs Phillies Preview
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A smart, underrated way to approach Pirates vs. Phillies on Friday is by betting on Bryce Harper to hit a double.
Rather than going for the obvious homer, our PRO Projections — which utilize proprietary data and expert analysis to spot betting edges by comparing odds, player performance projections, and market trends — highlight a valuable opportunity in Harper’s doubles total.
The Phillies are kicking off their series at home against the Pirates with a relatively high total, making it an ideal environment for extra-base hits.
According to Park Factors, the Citizens Bank Park ranks seventh in the league for doubles, further boosting the likelihood of Harper finding the gap. Harper has consistently provided a potent bat, but home run odds tend to be inflated in this matchup, reducing potential value.
Instead, focusing on Harper’s doubles is the ideal route.
Our models project a probability of approximately 0.31 doubles in Friday’s home opener.
At BetMGM, the odds for a Harper double sit at +425, which stands out compared to +320 at other sportsbooks, giving bettors a clear edge worth locking in.
Pick: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Doubles (+425; BetMGM)
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Moneyline
I have no bet on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I’m also passing on the game spread.
Over/Under
I have no bet on the game total.
Pirates vs Phillies Betting Trends
[bettingtrends title=”” gameid=”253788″ date=”20250516″][/bettingtrends]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Pirates vs Phillies Weather” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”253788″ date=”20250516″][/gameforecast]
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