The pitching matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds could wind up being one of the best young pitching duels of the season. Jared Jones pitches for the Pirates and has been spectacular. He can miss bats, but sometimes may struggle with walks and hard contact. That said, his peripheral metrics are about even with his results.
Rhett Lowder will start for the Cincinnati Reds. He has a relatively high walk rate and allows some hard contact.
Continue reading for my Pirates vs Reds prediction.
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- Pirates vs Reds picks: Pirates Moneyline (+102 | Play to -125)
My Pirates-Reds best bet is on Pirates Moneyline, where I see value at +102. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Reds Odds
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pirates” awayslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” homename=”Reds” homeslug=”cincinnati-reds” date=”Saturday, Sept. 21″ time=”1:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” col1text=”Moneyline” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Run Line” col1awaytext=”+105″ col1hometext=”-125″ col2awaytext=”8.5″ col2hometext=”8.5″ col2awayline=”-115o / -105u” col2homeline=”-115o / -105u” col3awaytext=”+1.5″ col3hometext=”-1.5″ col3awayline=”-195″ col3homeline=”+162″ bookname=”Caesars Sportsbook” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/668039_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gamematchup]
- Pirates-Reds Moneyline: Pirates +105 | Reds -125
- Pirates-Reds Over/Under: 8.5 total runs (-115o / -105u)
- Pirates-Reds Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-195) | Reds -1.5 (-195)
Projected Starting Pitchers for Pirates-Reds
| RHP Jared Jones (PIT) | Stat | RHP Rhett Lowder (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.85/3.98 | ERA /xERA | 1.74/4.35 |
| 3.93/3.78 | FIP / xFIP | 2.83/4.08 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 18.7% | K-BB% | 9.5% |
| 39.5% | GB% | 42.1% |
| 127 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 103 | Location+ | 101 |
D.J. James’ Pirates vs Reds Preview
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Trust Jared Jones” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/pittsburgh-pirates” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
Jones has a 3.85 ERA and a 3.98 xERA. He also has an Average Exit Velocity of 89.8 mph and a Hard-Hit Rate in the ninth percentile. His ground-ball rate is slightly below average and he has a 7.4% walk rate. However, his whiff rate and chase rate are elite and his strikeout rate is over 26%. He has also remained pretty consistent, only allowing more than three earned in three starts this year.
The Pirates’ have a 92 wRC+, a 7.6% walk rate and a 22.4% strikeout rate against righties over the past month. That said, those numbers don’t tell the entire story. Pittsburgh has eight active batters with a xwOBA over .325. This lineup is deep and should be able to test Lowder, who is still inexperienced at MLB-level.
In relief, the Bucs have a 4.63 xFIP, a 12.3% walk rate and a 20.8% strikeout rate over the last month. However, they do have four active arms under a 4.00 xFIP. Since Jones can throw deep into games, he should offset any of the damage the weaker Pittsburgh relievers could do in this game.
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[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: How Long Can Rhett Lowder Last?” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/cincinnati-reds” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
Lowder has a 1.74 ERA and a 4.35 xERA in four starts this season. His Average Exit Velocity is over 90 mph and he possesses a below average Hard-Hit Rate. He doesn’t produce many ground-balls, has a below average whiff rate and walks more than 10% of batters.
Since the Pirates can hit throughout the order, Lowder won’t make it very far in this game. In fact, he has only gone more than six innings once.
The Reds have a 102 wRC+, a 9.1% walk rate and a 24.9% strikeout rate off of righties over the past month. They also have three active bats above a .325 xwOBA. However, they also swing-and-miss often, which plays into Jones’ pitching style.
In relief, Cincy has a 4.46 xFIP over the past month. They have six arms with an xFIP below 4.00, so Lowder should have backup. However, if Lowder doesn’t pitch as many innings as Jones, the bullpens should be about a wash.
Pirates vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
Look for Jones to dominate and strike out plenty on Saturday. He has shown an ability to do so and is incredibly consistent. The Pirates’ lineup has more depth to it than the Reds’, so look for them get on often and force him out of the game early. Bet the Pirates on the moneyline. Take them from +102 to -125.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline +102 to -125
Moneyline
I’m betting the Pirates moneyline in this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
I’m going to pass on the Pirates vs. Reds run line.
Over/Under
I’m going to pass on the Pirates vs. Reds over/under.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Pirates vs Reds Betting Trends” center=”false”][/subheader]
Pirates Betting Trends
Pirates are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Pirates are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Pirates are 42-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of the Pirates last 5 games
Reds Betting Trends
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of the Reds last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 34 of the Reds 78 last games at home
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Pirates vs Reds Weather Forecast” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”233175″ date=”2024-09-21″][/gameforecast]
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