The Chicago Cubs (42-27) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (28-42) on Friday, June 13, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Pittsburgh has been playing better baseball as of late, winning six of its last nine games. However, the Pirates and Paul Skenes run into the class of the division with a four-game set against the NL-Central leading Cubs. The Cubs enter Friday as -112 moneyline favorites with the game total set at 6.5 (-124o / -102u).
Find my Pirates vs Cubs predictions and moneyline pick for Friday afternoon below.
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, Odds, Spread, Over/Under
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- Pirates vs Cubs Moneyline: Pirates -109, Cubs -112
- Pirates vs Cubs Total: 6.5 (-124o / -102u)
- Pirates vs Cubs Spread: Pirates -1.5 (+165), Cubs +1.5 (-225)
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Pirates vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) | Stat | RHP Cade Horton (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-6 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 1.88 / 2.32 | ERA /xERA | 4.11 / 4.22 |
| 2.50 / 3.02 | FIP / xFIP | 4.02 / 3.98 |
| 0.84 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 20.9% | K-BB% | 13.6% |
| 49.4% | GB% | 43.8% |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 111 | Location+ | 101 |
Pirates vs Cubs Preview, Predictions, Picks
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What even needs to be said about Paul Skenes? He is the best pitcher in baseball and likely will be for the next decade.
After breaking onto the scene with a 1.96 ERA in 23 starts last season to capture NL Rookie of the Year, all he has done is follow that up with a 1.88 ERA through 14 starts this year.
He is not striking guys out at the same clip as he did last year but has still allowed one run or fewer in six straight starts. Skenes is doing all he can for the Pirates, averaging 6.5 innings per start and he has handed the ball to the bullpen in the eight inning or later in five of his 14 starts, including the last two.
Unfortunately, Skenes just hasn’t gotten much help. He has a 4-6 record and the Pirates are 6-8 in his starts.
The lack of run support Skenes has received is not surprising given the Buccos rank 29th in scoring this season. They rank 29th in team OPS and really struggle to drive in runs.
Oneil Cruz has all the talent in the world, but he is very streaky and inconsistent. When he hits the ball, it goes a mile — but he also strikes out a ton.
Cruz and Andrew McCutchen are the only two hitters on this roster with an OPS over .750.
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Chicago called up their top prospect, right-hander Cade Horton, a little over a month ago and he is set to make his sixth career start on Friday.
The former first-round pick has started his career 3-1 with a 4.11 ERA. He has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his five starts.
One thing is clear from the start for Horton: his stuff is nasty.
He throws a 96 mph cutting fastball that runs in on lefties. He also throws a sweeper, a curveball, and has increased his changeup usage recently to great results.
His strikeout rate is just 18.9%, but he has a 27.2% Whiff rate so more punchouts should be coming with improved pitch mixing.
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Unlike Skenes, Horton has not had to worry much about run support. The Cubs have lost just one of his starts, thanks to one of the league’s best offenses.
The Cubs are second in runs scored and do everything well. They rank top five in team batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. They have the fifth-most home runs and the third-most stolen bases.
Kyle Tucker was the big offseason move but the breakout of young superstar Pete Crow-Armstrong might be the biggest story of the season so far.
Chicago is also getting a great season from Seiya Suzuki and career-best starts from Michael Busch and Carson Kelly. This lineup is incredibly dangerous from top to bottom.
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
I know betting against Skenes sucks. It is not fun, and it is likely going to feel like a stupid bet as you watch him shut down this Cubs lineup and punch out hitter after hitter.
But you still need the Pirates to be able to score for him, and eventually he is going to leave the game.
Pittsburgh is just 6-8 in games started by Skenes this season, including an 8-3 loss to the Cubs on May 1st when the right-hander has one of his worst outings, allowing three home runs and striking out just two batters.
Compare that to a 4-1 record for Chicago in Horton’s starts. While Horton has yet to post elite numbers, his stuff looks incredible, and he clearly has plenty of room to grow. He has a great opportunity to dominate a weak Pirates lineup.
As good as Skenes is, you are getting the best team in the division at even odds against the worst team in the division.
Don’t overthink it: bet the better team and hope Skenes is human on Friday.
Pick: Cubs -110 (Play to -118)
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Moneyline
Take the Cubs on the moneyline at -110.
Run Line (Spread)
I’m passing on the run line.
Over/Under
I’m passing on the game total.
Pirates vs Cubs Betting Trends
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Pirates vs Cubs Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Wrigley Field in Chicago, Ill. |
| Date: | Friday, June 13 |
| Time: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | Marquee Sports Network, SportsNet PIT, MLB Network |
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