Pirates vs Braves Odds & Prediction | How to Bet Skenes – Fried Duel

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The latest Pirates vs Braves odds for Saturday have the Braves as -140 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7.5 (+100o/-120u).

The starting pitching matchup for the second installment of this Pirates vs. Braves series is a good one, as right-hander Paul Skenes is set to take the mound for Pittsburgh, while Atlanta counters with left-hander Max Fried.

For my Pirates vs Braves prediction, I will be looking at the total.

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It’s pretty difficult to live up to the hype that accompanied Skenes upon making his professional debut this season, but he has done just that. In fact, he has outperformed the hype to the point where he is already one of the league’s premier arms at just 22 years old.

Skenes is 4-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through his first eight starts. Not only are his surface-level stats strong, his underlying metrics suggest regression should not be a concern.

The right-hander ranks in the 94th percentile in xERA and 86th percentile in xBA. He’s been particularly sharp recently, allowing one or fewer runs in three consecutive starts.

Skenes is 1-0 with a commanding 0.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. There were five or fewer total runs scored in all three of those outings.

Another factor of those low-scoring affairs is that Pittsburgh struggles at the dish. The Pirates rank 2oth or lower in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

These woes are likely to continue against Fried, a pitcher whom this current Pittsburgh lineup possesses a mere .164 xBA, .205 xSLG and .196 xwOBA against through 82 combined career plate appearances.

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While Skenes will receive more attention in this matchup, we also can’t discredit how well Fried has pitched this season. The former seventh overall draft pick is 7-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. His analytics are also strong, as he ranks in the 87th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

Following Fried is one of the league’s better bullpens. Atlanta’s relief pitching ranks in the top seven in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

While the Braves possess a solid lineup, it’s not anything to be too concerned about when taking the Under in this spot. They fail to crack the top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. Furthermore, nobody in this lineup has ever hit against Skenes prior to Saturday.

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Atlanta’s lineup is the only cause for concern when backing the Under in this matchup. However, as mentioned above, it is not enough to deter me from attacking it at plus money.

Skenes can handle it, while Fried should have no issue facing Pittsburgh’s below-average lineup. The strength of the Braves’ bullpen should also offset the weakness of the Pirates’ relief staff.

Finally, there have been seven or fewer total runs scored in nine of Fried’s past 11 starts, a trend I expect to continue Saturday.

Pick: Under 7.5 (+100 at FanDuel | Play to -105)

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