Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Picks, Sunday Night Baseball Best Bet

Let’s get to my Phillies vs Mets prediction, picks and Sunday Night Baseball best bet for September 22.

The Mets (86-69) are 1 1/2 games ahead of the Braves in the National League wild-card race entering Sunday night, finally earning themselves some cushion after weeks of fluctuating in and out of an MLB playoff spot. The Phillies are one game away from clinching the NL East, which would be their first division crown since 2011.

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• Phillies-Mets picks: Phillies Moneyline (-141 | Play to -155)

My Phillies vs Mets best bet is on Phillies Moneyline, where I see value at -141 down to -155. The best line is available at BetRivers, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

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• Phillies-Mets Moneyline: Phillies -145 | Mets +120
• Phillies-Mets Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-125o / +105u)
• Phillies-Mets Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+130) | Mets +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline

The Mets opened as +136 underdogs, but the action has steadily pushed their line down — reaching around +125 as of Sunday morning. As I mentioned above, my Sunday Night Baseball pick is the Phillies moneyline.

Run Line (Spread)

The Mets have covered the run line in four of their last five games and are 13-9 against the spread as home underdogs this season.

Over/Under

The under has hit in 54.5% of New York’s games where it enters as the home underdog and in 55.3% of the Phillies’ road games where they’re favored. The over has cashed in each game in this series, however, and in Philly’s last five.

[expertpickswidget league=”mlb” gameid=”233239″ date=”20240922″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI)	Stat	RHP Tylor Megill (NYM)
16-6	W-L	4-5
5.1	fWAR (FanGraphs)	1.3
2.56/2.86	ERA /xERA	4.08/3.89
3.14/3.38	FIP / xFIP	3.46/3.98
0.95	WHIP	1.26
21.2%	K-BB%	16.7%
43.2%	GB%	39.3%
106	Stuff+	107
104	Location+	97

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Sunday Night Baseball: Phillies at Mets Preview

[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Phillies Betting Preview: Zack Wheeler Faces Familiar Foe” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/philadelphia-phillies” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]

Wheeler has been generally good against his former club in 14 career starts, recording a 3.64 ERA and 5-4 record, but in the last two seasons the story’s been a bit different.

The strikeouts have certainly piled up, with a total of 25 in 23 2/3 innings across his last four starts, but he’s 18 earned runs over that stretch with a concerning eight walks to go along with 25 hits.

The perennial Cy Young hopeful has been a man alive since the calendar turned to August, however, posting a beefy 30.1% strikeout rate and 4.1% walk rate in nine starts for a 1.71 ERA. His Expected Batting Average has come in at .189 with a .327 Expected Slugging, and unlike his counterpart here he’s had to go to battle with some of the league’s peskiest offenses like the Astros, Braves and Diamondbacks.

Philly certainly would classify as one of those lineups, meanwhile, ranking 11th in wRC+ over the last two weeks with some liabilities in plate discipline but has continued to hit for power with a .175 ISO over that span.

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[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Mets Betting Preview: Tylor Megill Unlocked?” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/new-york-mets” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

At 29-years-old, the Mets were hoping that Megill took a giant step forward in his fourth big-league season, particularly with some injuries piling up in the rotation. He looked somewhat promising early on, bringing his strikeout rate back up to the heights we’d seen earlier in his career, but was demoted in August and subsequently knocked around in Triple-A.

Since coming back, it’s seemed enduring those outings has unlocked something in this veteran arm. Megill has posted a 1.69 ERA in four outings since he was brought back up on August 30, carrying a .218 xBA and .299 xSLG along with the results. He’s struck out 26.2% of the batters he’s seen, and has improved his walk rate with just six free passes over 21 1/3 innings.

It should be said that he’s likely pitching a bit above where he actually is, particularly with three starts against the White Sox, Blue Jays and Nationals weighing the stats, but the fact remains that he’s continuing to strike batters out and will have a great chance to keep the good times rolling against a Phillies offense sporting the seventh-worst strikeout rate and sixth-lowest walk rate over the past two weeks.

This offense, on the other hand, has continued to hit for a decent amount of power with a .178 ISO in that same period of time with a robust 10.3% walk rate and comfortable 20.3% strikeout rate — numbers which have rarely looked that good over the course of the season.

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Sunday Night Baseball Prediction, Betting Analysis

While the Mets are one of the trendiest teams in baseball at the moment, there’s a reason why the Phillies enter this one on the road as sizable favorites.

Megill has been a one-trick pony this season, finding strikeouts when he’s needed them, but his control has remained suspect and he’s still struggled to limit slugging for most of the year. He’s been red-hot since coming up from the minors, but he’s faced a group of teams which has struggled to produce at the plate all year and many which have lacked plate discipline.

The Phillies’ lineup could certainly play into Megill’s hands here, but they remain a dangerous team on contact and will also have the opportunity to hit a Mets bullpen which ranks just 17th in the month of September with a 4.13 ERA.

Philly’s stable, meanwhile, has posted a 3.14 ERA to sit seven spots higher, and Wheeler’s run of dominance has looked incredibly legitimate considering the teams he’s had to come through.

This is an offense which has put up 21 runs through three games this series, and with Wheeler and a menacing bullpen supporting it, I think this is the time to buy back in on the road side and back this series to end in a split.

Pick: Phillies ML (-148) at DraftKings

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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Phillies-Mets Betting Trends Entering Sunday” center=”false”][/subheader]

• 71% of the bets and 74% of the money are on the Phillies moneyline.
• 81% of the bets and 79% of the money are on the Phillies to cover the run line.
• 88% of the bets and 79% of the money are on the game total to go over.

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Phillies Betting Trends

• Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
• Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Phillies are 35-42 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Phillies’ last 5 games

Mets Betting Trends

• Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
• Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Mets are 40-35 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Mets’ last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets’ 80 last games at home

Phillies-Mets Key Injuries Entering Sunday

Phillies Injuries

Player	Status
OF Austin Hays	Kidney infection (10-day IL)

Mets Injuries

Player	Status
SS Francisco Lindor	Back tightness (day to day; reportedly targeting Tuesday return)
RHP Kodai Senga	Left calf strain (60-day IL)
2B/OF Jeff McNeil	Right wrist fracture (10-day IL)

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Phillies-Mets Weather Forecast for Sunday” center=”false”][/subheader]

[gameforecast league=“mlb” gameid=”233239″ date=”2024-09-22″][/gameforecast]

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