The Philadelphia Phillies (91-62) and New York Mets (85-68) play the second game of their four-game series on Friday night at Citi Field. First pitch for Phillies-Mets on Friday is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on Apple TV+. Let’s get into the latest MLB odds, probable starting pitchers (Cristopher Sanchez and David Peterson), key injuries and my Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets prediction and best bet below.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Phillies-Mets Predictions” center=”true” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/philadelphia-phillies” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/new-york-mets” link2follow=”true”][/subheader]
- Phillies-Mets picks: Phillies Moneyline (-108 | Play to -135)
My Phillies-Mets prediction is on the Phillies moneyline, where I see value at -108. The best line is available at Caesars Sportsbook, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
[expertpickswidget league=”mlb” gameid=”232612″ date=”20240920″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Odds
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/phi.png” awayname=”Phillies” awayslug=”philadelphia-phillies” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” homename=”Mets” homeslug=”new-york-mets” date=”Friday, Sep 20″ time=”7:10 p.m. ET” network=”Apple TV+” col1text=”Run Line” col2text=”Over/Under” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”-1.5″ col1awayline=”+150″ col1hometext=”+1.5″ col1homeline=”-178″ col2awaytext=”7.5″ col2hometext=”7.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”-120″ col3hometext=”+100″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/668039_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gamematchup]
- Phillies-Mets Moneyline: Phillies -120 | Mets +100
- Phillies-Mets Over/Under: 7.5 total runs (-110o / -110u)
- Phillies-Mets Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-178)
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Probable Starting Pitchers for Phillies at Mets
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | LHP David Peterson (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-9 | W-L | 9-2 |
| 4.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 3.24/3.53 | ERA /xERA | 2.85/4.75 |
| 2.86/3.16 | FIP / xFIP | 3.86/4.21 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.31 |
| 14.6% | K-BB% | 14.6% |
| 57.9% | GB% | 51.4% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 103 | Location+ | 98 |
D.J. James’ Phillies-Mets Friday Preview
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Phillies Betting Preview: Cristopher Sánchez Looking Sharp” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/philadelphia-phillies” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
Sánchez has a 3.24 ERA and 3.53 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 87.6 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 80th percentile. He ranks in the 96th percentile in ground-ball rate with a below-average strikeout rate but a walk rate under 6%. He has looked sharp in September, carrying a 1.35 ERA over three starts, and he can throw deep into games, which would eliminate the fear of weaker relief options entering this game.
The Phillies have a 111 wRC+, 9.1% walk rate, and 18.8% strikeout rate against lefties in the past month. They have eight hitters above a .325 xwOBA, so this lineup can hit throughout. Plus, Peterson is due for some negative regression.
In relief, the Phillies own a 3.93 xFIP, 22.3% strikeout rate, and 7.9% walk rate. They have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP. Since Sánchez has displayed the ability to throw deep into games and does not accrue pitches via walks or strikeouts, he should hand the ball over to some reliable arms.
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Mets Betting Preview: Will Regression Find David Peterson?” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/new-york-mets” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
Peterson has a 2.85 ERA and 4.75 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is almost 90 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 11th percentile. Yes, he can keep the ball on the ground and ranks in the 88th percentile, but allowing hard contact is a direct contrast to Sánchez. In addition, Peterson has a strikeout rate around 19% with a walk rate above 9%. None of those metrics should bode well with how well the Phillies are hitting lefties lately.
The Mets have a 131 wRC+ off lefties in the last month with a 9.2% walk rate and 19.1% strikeout rate. They have nine batters above a .325 xwOBA, so they have depth against lefties. However, Sánchez is a tough matchup and keeps the ball on the ground. New York may elevate the ball at times, but he can negate this edge they may have over other non-groundball throwers.
In relief, the Mets have a 3.83 xFIP, 28% strikeout rate, and 10% walk rate. They have five relievers under a 4.00 xFIP. However, with Peterson likely leaving this game early because of pitch accrual and having to face a deep Phillies’ lineup, the Mets could be forced to pitch their weakest middle relief options.
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Phillies-Mets Prediction, Moneyline Betting Analysis
Sánchez is the better starter, and it really is not even close. Peterson has been lucky all year, and this is a game where the chickens could come home to roost. Look for Philly to get him out of the game quickly, and look for Sánchez to keep the ball on the ground and negate any of the power hitters in the Mets’ lineup. He should continue his hot streak on the mound and pitch more than five innings.
Bet the Phillies to win this one on the road in a classic rivalry. Take them from -108 to -135.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -108 to -135
Moneyline
I’m betting the Phillies moneyline at -108 in this game.
Run Line (Spread)
I’m going to pass on the run line.
Over/Under
I’m also going to pass on the total.
Phillies-Mets Game Info: How to Watch, Start Time, Channel, More
| Location: | Citi Field |
| Date: | Friday, September 20, 2024 |
| Time: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | Apple TV+ |
Phillies-Mets Key Injuries
Phillies Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| OF Austin Hays | Kidney infection (10-day IL) |
Mets Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| SS Francisco Lindor | Back tightness (Day to day; not in Friday lineup) |
| 2B/OF Jeff McNeil | Right wrist fracture (10-day IL) |
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Phillies-Mets Betting Trends” center=”false”][/subheader]
- 62% of bets but just 21% of the money is on the Mets moneyline
- 78% of bets and 73% of the money is on the over
- 69% of bets and 57% of the money is on the Mets to cover the run line
Phillies Betting Trends
- Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Phillies’ last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Phillies’ 78 last games at home
Mets Betting Trends
- Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Mets are 40-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mets’ last 5 games
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”PhilliesMets Weather Forecast for Friday” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”232612″ date=”2024-09-20″][/gameforecast]
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