The Chicago Cubs host the Oakland Athletics on Wednesday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET on MLB Network.
You can find my Athletics vs Cubs prediction and picks for Wednesday — plus the latest MLB odds — for September 18, below.
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- A’s-Cubs pick: Under 8 (-105 | Play to -110)
My Athletics-Cubs best bet is on the under, where I see value at -105. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
[expertpickswidget league=”mlb” gameid=”232535″ date=”20240918″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
Athletics vs Cubs Odds
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” awayname=”Oakland A’s” awayslug=”oakland-athletics” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” homename=”Chicago Cubs” homeslug=”chicago-cubs” date=”Wednesday, Sept. 18″ time=”2:20 p.m. ET” network=”MLB Network” col1text=”Moneyline” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Run Line” col1awaytext=”+145″ col1hometext=”-175″ col2awaytext=”7.5″ col2hometext=”7.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+1.5″ col3hometext=”-1.5″ col3awayline=”-150″ col3homeline=”+125″ bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]
- Athletics-Cubs Moneyline: A’s +145 | Cubs -175
- Athletics-Cubs Over/Under: 7.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Athletics-Cubs Spread: A’s +1.5 (-150) | Cubs -1.5 (+125)
Athletics-Cubs Probable Starting Pitchers
| LHP Brady Basso (OAK) | Stat | LHP Justin Steele (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 5-5 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.0 |
| 1.23 / 3.07 | ERA /xERA | 3.09 / 2.78 |
| 2.97 / 3.63 | FIP / xFIP | 3.13 / 3.57 |
| 0.89 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 16.4% | K-BB% | 18.4% |
| 45.2% | GB% | 44.1% |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 108 | Location+ | 103 |
Oakland A’s-Chicago Cubs Preview
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”A’s Betting Preview: Can Brady Basso Keep It Up?” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/oakland-athletics” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
After beginning his rookie campaign with three appearances out of the bullpen, Basso joined the rotation and has flourished. He has yet to allow a run through 11 1/3 innings as a starter and boasts a 1-0 record with a 1.23 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP on the season.
Based on his underlying metrics, his success is likely to continue. Basso ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, walk rate and barrel rate.
Following the southpaw is a bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league in both ERA and FIP.
However, run support certainly isn’t a guarantee. This season, Oakland ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, OPS and stolen bases.
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[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Cubs Betting Preview: Justin Steele Returns” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/chicago-cubs” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
The Athletics’ woes at the dish are likely to continue against Steele, who makes his return to the rotation following a brief stint on the Injured List. Steele was dealing prior to this absence, surrendering two or fewer runs in five straight starts.
He went 3-0 over that stretch with a 2.03 ERA.
The left-hander’s analytics suggest he is going to pick up right where he left off as he ranks in the 83rd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Furthermore, in his lone career outing against Oakland, Steele allowed just one earned run on four hits through six innings.
Even if he is on a short leash in his return, which I doubt he will be, we can also trust a Chicago bullpen that ranks 12th in ERA.
Athletics at Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis for Over/Under
There should be a lot of optimism on the under. Both starting pitchers rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, walk rate and barrel rate.
Meanwhile, both bullpens rank in the top half of the league in ERA. That just leaves the hitting, and the main concern there is Chicago’s lineup.
With that said, the Cubs have never faced Basso, so it may take a few rotations through the batting order to figure him out.
Finally, the weather should also help us out as the forecast calls for winds blowing in from right-center.
Pick: Under 8 (-105 | Play to -110)
Moneyline
I’m going to pass on the moneyline. I believe both starting pitchers are strong, and the gap between the lineups isn’t substantial enough to swing me in a particular direction.
Run Line (Spread)
I’m also going to pass on the run line. I like the Athletics at +1.5, but not with the amount of juice I’d have to lay.
Over/Under
I’m betting Under 8 in this game.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Athletics-Cubs Betting Trends” center=”false”][/subheader]
- 87% of bets and 83% of the money are on the Cubs moneyline
- 83% of bets and 82% of the money are on the over (7.5)
- 88% of bets and 74% of the money are on the Cubs run line (-1.5).
A’s Betting Trends
- Athletics are 1-4 in their past 5 games.
- Athletics are 1-4 in their past 5 games against the spread
- Athletics are 39-37 in their road games against the spread
Cubs Betting Trends
- Cubs are 2-3 in their past 5 games.
- Cubs are 2-3 in their past 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone UNDER in 40 of Cubs’ 72 past games at home
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Athletics-Cubs Weather Forecast for Wednesday” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”232535″ date=”2024-09-18″][/gameforecast]
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