The New York Yankees (80-59) and Texas Rangers (66-73) play the series finale of their three-game series Wednesday night at Globe Life Field. First pitch is set for 8:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video.
The Yankees have lost five of their last seven games and enter Wednesday a half-game back of the Baltimore Orioles for first place in the AL East. The Yanks, however, hold a commanding 5 1/2 game cushion for the first AL wild-card spot.
Yankees-Rangers odds for Wednesday have the Yankees as -120 moneyline favorites and Rangers as +100 underdogs, with an over/under of 8.5 (-105o / -115u). With that, let’s get to my Yankees vs Rangers prediction and moneyline pick for Wednesday, September 4.
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- Yankees-Rangers picks: Rangers Moneyline (+100 | Play to -105)
My Yankees-Rangers best bet is on the Rangers moneyline, where I see value at +100. The best line is available at ESPN Bet and FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Odds
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- Yankees-Rangers Moneyline: Yankees -120 | Rangers +100
- Yankees-Rangers Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Yankees-Rangers Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Rangers +1.5 (-175)
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Probable Starting Pitchers for Yankees at Rangers
| RHP Marcus Stroman (NYY) | Stat | RHP Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-6 | W-L | 10-7 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 3.81 / 4.85 | ERA /xERA | 3.60 / 3.76 |
| 4.79 / 4.63 | FIP / xFIP | 3.76 / 3.69 |
| 1.39 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 7.5% | K-BB% | 18.8% |
| 48.8% | GB% | 50% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 96 | Location+ | 105 |
Tony Sartori’s Yankees-Rangers Preview
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”New York Yankees Betting Preview: Regression Looming for Stroman” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/new-york-yankees” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
It’s been a volatile campaign for Stroman, who possesses a 3.81 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP through 26 starts. However, his underlying metrics suggest that further regression is looming.
The right-hander sports a 4.85 xERA and ranks in the 39th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate. This expected regression is likely to come to fruition against Texas, a team Stroman is 2-3 against over the past five meetings with a fade-worthy 6.84 ERA.
Following Stroman is a bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in both FIP and xFIP.
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[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Texas Rangers Betting Preview: Eovaldi Throwing Well” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/texas-rangers” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
Meanwhile, Eovaldi should be a good candidate to back on Wednesday night. Through 24 starts, the right-hander is 10-7 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.
His analytics are equally strong as Eovaldi ranks in the 62nd percentile or higher in xERA, strikeout rate, walk rate and barrel rate. Entering this matchup in particularly good form, he has surrendered three or fewer earned runs in three consecutive starts.
Eovaldi is 2-1 with a commanding 2.70 ERA over that stretch.
Yankees-Rangers Prediction: Moneyline Betting Analysis
Texas’ lineup is the only reason why this is priced at +100. With that said, this Rangers’ lineup boasts a .259 xBA and a .316 xwOBA through 76 combined career plate appearances against Stroman.
If the Rangers can keep things close in terms of hitting, then they’ll certainly be a live underdog given the pitching matchup. Eovaldi outranks Stroman in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, walk rate and barrel rate.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (+100 at FanDuel | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I’m betting Rangers moneyline in this game.
Run Line (Spread)
I’m going to pass on the run line. I like Texas at +1.5, but -164 is too steep of a price for my taste.
Over/Under
I’m also going to pass on the total. There are too many contradicting variables to make feel strongly about either side, namely Eovaldi’s strong pitching against Stroman’s weak pitching.
- 55% of the bets and 83% of the money are on the Yankees on the moneyline.
- 97% of the bets and 95% of the money are on the over.
- 80% of the bets and 83% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the run line.
Yankees Betting Trends
- Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Yankees are 38-32 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees’ last 5 games
Rangers Betting Trends
- Rangers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Rangers are 28-40 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Rangers’ last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 24 of Rangers’ 69 last games at home
Yankees vs Rangers Key Injuries
Yankees Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Gerrit Cole | Right calf cramp (questionable) |
| RHP Luis Gil | Lower back strain (15-day IL) |
| RHP Clarke Schmidt | Right lat strain (60-day IL) |
| INF Jon Berti | Left calf strain (60-day IL) |
Rangers Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Jon Gray | Right foot neuroma (15-day IL) |
| RHP Tyler Mahle | Right shoulder stiffness (15-day IL) |
| RHP Max Scherzer | Right shoulder fatigue (15-day IL) |
| RHP Jacob deGrom | Tommy John surgery (60-day IL) |
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Yankees-Rangers Weather Forecast for Wednesday” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”231990″ date=”2024-09-04″][/gameforecast]
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