Yankees vs Dodgers Prediction, F5 Pick, Odds, Sunday Night Baseball Best Bet

The Los Angeles Dodgers (36-22) host the New York Yankees (35-22) on June 1, 2025. First pitch for Sunday Night Baseball from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.

The Yankees have failed to extract any revenge for their five-game loss in the 2024 World Series in the first two matchups of this series, as the Dodgers have won both matchups by a combined margin of 26-7. Ryan Yarbrough (3.06 ERA, 35 1/3 IP) will be tasked with shutting down the Dodgers’ high-powered offense in the series finale in a tough matchup against Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1.97 ERA, 64 IP).

Find my Yankees vs Dodgers prediction, F5 pick and Sunday Night Baseball best bet below.

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• Yankees vs Dodgers pick: Yankees First Five Innings Moneyline +160 (Bet365, Play to +150)

My Yankees vs Dodgers best bet for Sunday is the Yankees’ F5 moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

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Yankees vs Dodgers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

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Yankees vs Dodgers Preview, Predictions

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The Yankees will get their first look at Yamamoto since Game 2 of last year’s World Series, a game in which Yamamoto allowed only one hit and one earned run across 6 1/3 innings.

New York’s starting lineup will be considerably different in this matchup than it was then, particularly with Jazz Chisholm Jr. still completing his rehab stint with the Somerset Patriots. Chisholm has gone 3-for-6 in his first two rehab games in Double-A and will likely be recalled after Sunday’s matchup.

The Yankees hold the second-best wRC+ in the league versus right-handed pitching and hit to a wRC+ of 118 versus RHP in the month of May. They ranked third in BB/K versus righties in May, and sixth in hard-hit rate.

Ryan Yarbrough has proven to be a huge get for a Yankees side that is without several key pitchers due to injury, as he holds a 3.06 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and 3.75 xFIP this season.

Yarbrough has been particularly dominant recently — over his last five starts, he has allowed an ERA of 1.90 and an xFIP of 3.51.

His pitch metrics have also been strong, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 101 and a Pitching+ rating of 104.

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The Dodgers have been less productive versus lefties than righties this season, though their splits are still excellent. They hold a wRC+ of 122 versus LHP and rank 17th in BB/K ratio and sixth in hard-hit rate.

They will be without one key bat in this matchup, however, as Mookie Betts is sidelined with a broken toe.

Yamamoto is currently priced as the second favorite in the NL Cy Young market, having gotten off to an excellent start with highly convincing underlying metrics. He’s pitched an xERA of 2.54 with an xFIP of 2.67, and holds a K-BB% of 22.4.

He’s been slightly less dominant recently, as over his last five starts he holds an ERA of 3.00 and an xFIP of 3.15, and a K-BB% of 20.2.

His pitch metrics have also worsened in that span; he owns a Stuff+ rating of 92 and a Pitching+ rating of 98 over his last five starts.

Yankees vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis

The Yankees will be desperate to bounce back after Saturday’s embarrassing loss. They’re also looking to avoid being swept in the highest-profile series of the year to this point on Sunday Night Baseball.

The Yankees have been comparably productive offensively in the splits relative to this matchup and will provide a very tough matchup for Yamamoto, who has been slightly less dominant during his recent outings.

Yarbrough has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball and will provide a tough matchup for a Dodgers lineup that is slightly more manageable with Betts sidelined.

The Dodgers are obviously more likely to win this game than not, but with a red-hot pitcher on the mound in Yarbrough and a high-powered lineup in their own right, New York’s chances of salvaging some pride with a win on Sunday Night Baseball look to be undervalued.

My lean in terms of backing the full game-line would still be with the Yankees at +145, but given how Yarbrough has pitched recently, there looks to be more value in backing the Yankees to win the first five innings at a much longer price of +160.

Pick: Yankees First Five Innings Moneyline +160 (Bet365, Play to +150)

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Moneyline

As outlined, backing the Yankees at +145 would be my preferred play in terms of a side, but a price of +160 for them to win the first five innings looks to present more value.

Run Line (Spread)

There is no bet I will be making on the run line at the current prices.

Over/Under

A total of 9 looks accurate considering this starting pitching matchup, given that Dodger Stadium appears likely to hold favorable conditions for run production at first pitch.

Yankees vs Dodgers Betting Trends

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Yankees Trends

• Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Yankees are 12-18 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Yankees’ last 5 games

Dodgers Trends

• Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Dodgers’ last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 19 of Dodgers’ 29 last games at home

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