The New York Mets (79-66) and Toronto Blue Jays (69-77) play the series finale of their interleague series on Wednesday afternoon at Rogers Centre. First pitch for the Mets-Blue Jays rubber match on September 11 is set for 3:07 p.m. ET; the game can be seen on MLB Network.
The Mets were stymied on Tuesday and enter Wednesday tied once again with the Atlanta Braves (79-66) for the final NL wild-card spot.
Sean Manaea takes the hill for the Mets — he has been incredibly sharp and has helped fuel New York’s surge over the last two weeks. His opponent will be Bowden Francis, who has been rolling for the past month-plus, posting a 1.58 ERA and 45 strikeouts over his last 40 innings (six starts).
In relief, both teams are pretty even, so since the Mets are still hitting well, they hold value, which I’ll explain with my Mets vs Blue Jays prediction and moneyline pick for Wednesday, September 11.
- Mets-Blue Jays picks: Mets Moneyline (-118 | Play to -145)
My Mets-Blue Jays best bet is on Mets moneyline, where I see value at -118. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” awayname=”Mets” awayslug=”new-york-mets” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” homename=”Blue Jays” homeslug=”toronto-blue-jays” date=”Wednesday, Sept. 11″ time=”3:07 p.m. ET” network=”MLB Network” col1text=”Moneyline” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Run Line” col1awaytext=”-130″ col1hometext=”+110″ col2awaytext=”7.5″ col2hometext=”7.5″ col2awayline=”-115o / -105u” col2homeline=”-115o / -105u” col3awaytext=”-1.5″ col3hometext=”+1.5″ col3awayline=”+135″ col3homeline=”-165″ bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]
- Mets-Blue Jays Moneyline: Mets -130 | Jays +110
- Mets-Blue Jays Over/Under: 7.5 total runs (-115o / -105u)
- Mets-Blue Jays Spread: Mets -1.5 (+135) | Jays +1.5 (-165)
Mets-Blue Jays Probable Starting Pitchers
| Sean Manaea LHP | Stat | Bowden Francis RHP |
|---|---|---|
| 11-5 | W-L | 8-4 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.43/3.88 | ERA /xERA | 3.72/3.62 |
| 3.83/4.07 | FIP / xFIP | 4.38/3.96 |
| 1.10 | WHIP | 0.99 |
| 16.7% | K-BB% | 18.4% |
| 36.7% | GB% | 35.8% |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 97 | Location+ | 102 |
New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays Preview
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Mets Betting Preview: Plus Matchup for Sean Manaea” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/new-york-mets” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
Manaea owns a 3.43 ERA and a 3.88 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.7 mph with an above average Hard-Hit Rate. He doesn’t keep the ball on the ground much, but his strikeout rate is above 25% with a walk rate under 9%. He has remained pretty stable with a 3.39 ERA in the second half, so since Toronto struggles to get the ball in the air, he should thrive in this matchup.
The Mets hold a 110 wRC+, an 8.2% walk rate and a 27.6% strikeout rate off of righties in the past month. They have nine active batters with an xwOBA over .300 and eight above .320. The Mets are strong throughout the order, so they could make it to Toronto’s bullpen quickly.
New York’s bullpen has a 4.14 xFIP, a 27.2% strikeout rate and a 12.8% walk rate. Yes, walks are a huge problem for this pitching staff, but the Mets still have four active relievers with an xFIP under 4.00. Since Manaea has shown he can throw deep into games, he should have the backup he needs to close things down upon his exit.
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[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Blue Jays Betting Preview: Can Bowden Francis Stay Hot?” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/toronto-blue-jays” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
Francis has a 3.72 ERA and a 3.62 xERA. Like Manaea, he will not keep the ball on the ground. However, the Mets tend to elevate the ball. They are good throughout the batting order, so they could give him trouble. Francis has a higher Average Exit Velocity and similar Hard-Hit Rate to Manaea. He does limit walks, but won’t miss as many bats as Manaea. That could help the Mets keep the ball in the air and drive Francis out of the game sooner.
The Jays have been awful against lefties lately. In the past month, they have a 75 wRC+, a 7.7% walk rate and a 27.1% strikeout rate. They only have two active batters above a .300 xwOBA, so Manaea should be able to feast on them. In addition, he will be able to miss plenty of bats, given how frequently the Blue Jays strike out against lefties.
In relief, the Jays are about the same as the Mets in the past month. They have a 4.08 xFIP, a 21.6% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate. That walk rate is pretty high for a relief staff that doesn’t manufacture many strikeouts. Striking hitters out in relief is paramount to success, so even though the Blue Jays have five relievers with an xFIP under 4.00, the Mets may fare better in this game pitching-wise.
Mets at Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis: Moneyline
Manaea should continue his great pitching because the Blue Jays simply can’t hit lefties right now. Meanwhile, New York has trounced righties, like Francis, from top-to-bottom. Look for the Mets to pull this one out on the road. The market is currently undervaluing them, so bet New York from -118 to -145.
Pick: Mets Moneyline -118 to -145
Moneyline
I’m betting the Mets moneyline in this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
I do not have a bet on the Mets vs. Blue Jays run line.
Over/Under
I’m going to pass on the Mets vs. Blue Jays over/under.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Mets at Blue Jays Betting Trends” center=”false”][/subheader]
Mets Betting Trends
- Mets are 37-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets’ last 5 games
- Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Blue Jays Betting Trends
- Blue Jays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Blue Jays’ last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Blue Jays’ 70 last games at home
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Mets-Blue Jays Weather Wednesday” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”232180″ date=”2024-09-11″][/gameforecast]
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