Mets vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds Tonight

The Boston Red Sox (25-25) host the New York Mets (29-20) on Wednesday, May 21, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.

The Red Sox are -155 moneyline favorites to push past the .500 mark and sweep the Mets on Wednesday as they send Garrett Crochet (2.00 ERA, 56 IP) to the mound to face off against Tylor Megill (3.74 ERA, 43 1/3 IP) in the series finale.

Find my Red Sox vs Mets predictions and picks for Wednesday below.

[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/MetsRedSoxQS.jpg” buttontext=”Tail This Pick at BetMGM” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1581352420&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mets vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/new-york-mets” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bos.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/boston-red-sox” link2follow=”true”][/subheader]

• Mets vs Red Sox pick: Under 8 Runs -115 (Bet365, Play to -125)

My Mets vs Red Sox best bet for Wednesday is the game total under 8. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

[expertpickswidget league=”mlb” gameid=”253934″ date=”20250521″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Odds, Lines

[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” awayname=”Mets” awayslug=”new-york-mets” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bos.png” homename=”Red Sox” homeslug=”boston-red-sox” date=”Wednesday, May 21″ time=”6:45 p.m. ET” network=”MLB Network” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-170″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”+143″ col2awaytext=”7.5″ col2hometext=”7.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+130″ col3hometext=”-155″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/463646_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars”][/gamematchup]

_InlineAdBlock

Mets vs Red Sox Preview, Prediction

[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Mets Betting Preview” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/new-york-mets” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

The Mets will be looking to avoid being swept for the first time this season in this matchup as their bats have gone cold at Fenway thus far, producing only two runs in the first two games. To this point, they are yet to even enter a series finale with the possibility of being swept.

Across baseball, teams have fared well historically in games in which they are attempting to avoid a series sweep. Across the last 1,342 matchups in which teams are trying to avoid a sweep, they hold a 61.02% win percentage, and betting on each of those teams would yield an 11.0% ROI.

As strong as the Mets’ start to the season has been, they now trail the Philadelphia Phillies by 1 1/2 games in the race for the NL East title. The Mets’ bats have cooled off recently, as over the last two weeks they hold a wRC+ of 97 and have struck out 23.3% of the time.

Finding better results at the plate could prove difficult in this matchup, as the Mets will face off against a Cy Young contender in great form in Garrett Crochet in pitcher-friendly conditions.

At first pitch, Fenway Park is projected to have 10-12 mph winds blowing in from right-center field and a temperature of 51 degrees.

Tylor Megill has had a rock-solid start to the campaign, as he enters this matchup with a 3.50 xERA and a 3.13 FIP. He’s struck out 11.63 batters per nine compared to last year’s mark of 10.50, which makes sense as his Stuff+ rating is up to 110 compared to last year’s mark of 103.

The Mets bullpen has been a strength thus far, as their relievers have allowed an ERA of 2.98 and a 3.81 xFIP.

[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Red Sox Betting Preview” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bos.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/boston-red-sox” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]

Crochet has not disappointed in his first season with the Red Sox, as he’s already worked 56 innings and holds an ERA of 2.00. He is currently priced at +475 to win the AL Cy Young, behind only Tarik Skubal and Hunter Brown.

Crochet’s overall underlying metrics are a little worse than last season, as he holds an xERA of 3.16 and a FIP of 2.80, but he has been in more dominant form of late.

Across his last four outings, Crochet holds an ERA of 2.08, an xFIP of 2.72 and a K-BB% of 22.3. He also holds a Stuff+ rating of 112 and a Pitching+ rating of 108 in those outings.

The Red Sox have not been as effective versus right-handed pitching as they have been against lefties this season, as they hold a wRC+ of 103 and a 0.36 BB/K against RHP. Chances are their splits will level off to some extent moving forward, based on the upside of several of their top left-handed batters.

Mets vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis

The first two matchups of this series have featured just six combined runs, and it seems likely that the series finale could be another low-event affair.

Crochet has been dominant of late and looks likely to hang around in the Cy Young race based on his strong underlying profile and excellent 2024 season.

Megill also looks likely to finish with well above average results this season, though his level of play has dropped off entering this matchup.

Matchups featuring comparable weather conditions at Fenway have trended heavily to the under. In games at Fenway that have featured temperatures between 45 and 55 degrees and winds blowing in between 8-16 mph, betting the under has yielded a +12.9% ROI since 2005.

At -115 there looks to be value in backing this game to go under the total of 8.

Pick: Under 8 -115 (Bet365, Play to -125)

[procard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/736824_ActionPRO_promo_1500x844.jpg” cta=”Premium picks, tools & analysis” firstupsell=”Track & follow smart money” secondupsell=”Biggest player prop edges” thirdupsell=”Real-time expert pick alerts” buttontext=”SAVE 66% NOW!” buttonurl=”/pricing”][/procard]

Moneyline

While backing teams to avoid being swept has been very effective historically, as well as in the 2025 season, my lean would still be with the Red Sox at -140.

Megill has been in far lesser form than Crochet, who has allowed fewer than three earned runs in four straight outings and features one of the more convincing underlying profiles in baseball.

Run Line (Spread)

The Red Sox would be my lean in terms of betting on the run-line, but do not quite appear to be worth betting.

Over/Under

As outlined, betting the under is my favorite play from this matchup.

Mets vs Red Sox Betting Trends

[bettingtrends title=”” gameid=”253934″ date=”20250521″][/bettingtrends]

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Mets vs Red Sox Weather” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”253934″ date=”20250521″][/gameforecast]