Nationals vs Phillies Odds
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The Philadelphia Phillies have come out of the gates on fire, leading MLB with a 31-14 record. They are 16-4 over the last 20 games and getting elite pitching and offense from their entire lineup. The Phils will have their ace on the hill on Friday night, as Zack Wheeler gets the ball for his 10th start of the season.
The Washington Nationals were expected to struggle as the enter a rebuild phase but have been surprisingly competitive so far this season. Washington is 20-22 and sits third in the NL East Standings.
Find my Nationals vs Phillies preview and betting prediction below.
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27-year-old Jake Irvin missed the entire 2020 (COVID) and 2021 (Tommy John) seasons and spent all of 2022 in the minors. He got called up in early 2023 to the major leagues and had a 4.61 ERA in 24 starts.
Through eight outings this year, Irvin has pitched to a 3.55 ERA but I’m not so sure he has actually built upon last season. He has a 4.72 xERA and has raised his hard-hit rate from 39.6% to 47.1%. His xwOBA is actually identical at .345. He ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
The one area Irvin has significantly improved is with his control. He has been able to drop his walk rate from 10.2% down to 4.3%, one of the best in the league. He has allowed one walk or less in five straight starts. He added a cutter to his arsenal and has really limited his sinker and changeup usage.
Washington started the season hitting the ball alright but they have gone ice cold as of late. On the season a whole, the Nationals sit 24th in wOBA and wRC+ but they have the worst marks in the league in both over the last week. 23-year-old CJ Abrams has been the teams best hitter but he has really struggled over the last few weeks after a red hot start.
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/05/Wheeler-2.jpg” linktext=”The +387 Same Game Parlay for Nats vs. Phils” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/nationals-vs-phillies-same-game-parlay-friday-sgp-picks”][/relatedarticle]
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Despite a blowup outing his last time out allowing six runs, Zack Wheeler remains the betting favorite to claim the NL Cy Young Award. He has a 2.53 ERA which ranks 7th in the National League. Wheeler has upped his strikeouts per nine rate up to 10.97, a career-best, and he has racked up the third most strikeouts in the league.
Even with his recent bad outing, Wheeler’s ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and .190 opponent batting average would all be career bests. He combines a 95-mile-per-hour fastball with a sinker, sweeper, splitter, cutter, and curveball mix.
The splitter is a new pitch Wheeler has added to his arsenal. He threw a similar pitch a few times in 2020, but really worked on this new splitter during the offseason in hopes of putting him over the top for a Cy Young Award.
Wheeler has typically faired better against right-handed hitters and he hopes that this new splitter will help him take care of lefties more. So far so good as hitters have just a .128 xBA and .170 xwOBA against his splitter with a miniscule 15.4% hard-hit rate.
Philadelphia’s offense is clicking on all cylinders right now. They lead the league in runs per game averaging 5.3 runs per contest. They average more than 5.5 runs at home. The Phillies are top five in wOBA and wRC+. This offense has gotten it done throughout the lineup. Seven of their regular starters have a wRC+ of at least 105.
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Negative regression is expected for Irvin who has an xERA more than a full run higher than his current ERA (4.72 xERA, 3.55 ERA). Irvin is failing to miss bats and has just an 8.8% swinging strike percentage with a 89.7% zone contact rate.
That provides a good matchup for Phillies players who make a lot of contact, like Bryson Stott. Irvin has much worse against lefthanded hitters, allowing a .344 wOBA against.
Stott has been red hot at the plate recently. He is hitting .417 with a 1.197 OPS over the last two weeks and leads the team in RBI over that stretch. He has struck out just six times in his last 36 at-bats and just once over his last 20. He is patient at the plate and either puts the ball in play or draws a walk.
Over the last 10 games, Stott has gone over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs in 9 of them. Over the last 30 games, he has cashed this number 64% of the time.
Back Stott to stay hot on Friday against Irvin and the Nationals.
Pick: Bryson Stott over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI -115
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