Weather is always a popular topic surrounding Fourth of July weekend, though people are typically curious about upcoming barbecues, parties and simply being outdoors with friends and family over the holiday.
However, weather is always on the minds of savvy sports bettors, especially when it comes to MLB over/unders.
Specifically, wind can have a significant effect on MLB scoring as the direction of the breezes can have a direct impact on the number of runs scored.
Bettors who get ahead of weather-related line moves can find plenty of value in baseball totals, and when it comes to Friday’s MLB slate, it’s important to note that very strong winds could impact scoring for Cardinals vs. Phillies and Rangers vs. Mets.
Let’s take a detailed look at Friday’s MLB weather forecast, including how bettors can take advantage for those two matchups.
MLB Weather Forecast for Friday
*Odds and weather data as of Friday morning
Cardinals vs. Phillies Weather Forecast
6:05 p.m. ET | MLB Network
Consistent double-digit winds are expected to be blowing at Citizens Bank Park on Friday night, but as is always the case, the direction of those breezes is the key piece to the MLB betting puzzle.
According to Sports Insights’ MLB weather data, 11-13 mph winds are expected to be driving toward right-center throughout tonight’s Cardinals vs. Phillies game, helping any well hit fly balls carry over the fence.
In case you’re wondering, since 2005 overs are 44-25-3 when winds of at least 10 mph are blowing out at Citizens Bank Park.
That record is also based on closing lines, so proactive bettors can find even more value by getting in early before the rest of the market catches up to the latest MLB weather.
Pick: Cardinals/Phillies Over 9.5 (-104) at FanDuel
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Rangers vs. Mets Weather Forecast
7:10 p.m. ET | Apple TV+
The weather story will be very similar at Citi Field for tonight’s Rangers vs. Mets matchup as well.
As you can see below, 11-12 mph winds will be blowing essentially toward center field throughout the night on Friday, and, just like Citizens Bank Park, Citi Field is also a prime sport for betting “windy overs.”
When consistent double-digit winds are blowing out from home plate, Citi Field has the been the best park in all of baseball for windy overs.
Since opening in 2009, overs are 101-57-8 at Citi Field in these weather conditions, good enough for a gaudy win rate of 63.9%.
Pick: Rangers/Mets Over 8.5 (-104) at BetRivers
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