Below are my projections for the daily strikeout leader today, Tuesday, July 2nd.
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Luis Gil should be the clear favorite according to my simulation, and the fact we have some slight weather concerns in the Tigers-Twins game, which would impact one of the top pitchers on the slate in Tarik Skubal, would only make it easier for Gil to take this down.
I like two longshots for this slate, too, in Hayden Birdson and Jose Soriano. I’m also on their K props as well, which you can read about below.
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MLB Strikeout Props Tonight
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”White Sox vs. Guardians” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png” awayname=”Chicago White Sox” awayslug=”chicago-white-sox” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” homename=”Cleveland Guardians” homeslug=”cleveland-guardians” date=”Tuesday, July 2″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Carlos Carrasco” subtext=”Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Carlos Carrasco will most likely face 21-22 hitters tonight, which means he’s unlikely to get to face his easiest strikeouts more than twice, in projected No. 6 hitter Paul DeJong and projected No. 9 hitter Korey Lee.
I’m projecting Carrasco closer to a 65% chance of staying under 4.5 strikeouts against the White Sox tonight.
Pick: Carlos Carrasco Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Giants vs. Braves” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” awayname=”San Francisco Giants” awayslug=”san-francisco-giants” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” homename=”Atlanta Braves” homeslug=”atlanta-braves” date=”Tuesday, July 2″ time=”7:20 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Hayden Birdsong” subtext=”Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/betmgm” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Hayden Birdsong was erratic in his MLB debut, striking out five and walking three.
His four-pitch mix was fairly solid and I think he can be a high strikeout percentage guy who will benefit from facing a swing-happy team like the Braves.
I’m projecting Birdsong closer to a 68% chance to clear this number. That might be too aggressive for him and he has a wide range of outcomes, so instead of going overboard on just his K prop, he’s worth investing in in the most strikeouts market at +3100 as well.
Pick: Hayden Birdsong Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Angels vs. Athletics” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Angels” awayslug=”los-angeles-angels” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” homename=”Oakland Athletics” homeslug=”oakland-athletics” date=”Tuesday, July 2″ time=”9:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Jose Soriano” subtext=”Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+140)” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Jose Soriano has too much upside against the Oakland Athletcs to be plus money here.
I’m projecting him closer to a 55% chance to clear 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
FanDuel is also offering his over 4.5 at -158, which is the safer route, and I’m projecting that closer to a 71% chance.
Pick: Jose Soriano Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+140)
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