Welcome to the 2025 MLB season! With that, strikeout props are back.
All of the strikeout props I post for the first handful of days this season will be for one-half unit. The lines are very sharp, and we don’t have much information to go off since, well, there haven’t been any games this season.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”FanDuel” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/53766_FanDuel@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/03/Screen-Shot-2025-03-27-at-11.58.19-AM.png” buttontext=”Bet Koerner’s Clay Holmes Over!” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/fanduel/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1408610936&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Clay Holmes Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+108)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/new-york-mets” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Clay Holmes is a fascinating player to project for Opening Day. The 32-year-old has been a relief pitcher for most of his career, but he’s making the transition to a starting pitcher this year. He was impressive enough in spring training to start the opener.
Holmes’ last start in the Grapefruit League against the Cardinals saw him throw 88 pitches, so I’m not too concerned about his pitch count in the opener and think it should be in the 85 range for today.
Holmes will still likely lean on his sinker as his main pitch, but he looks to open the season with a five-pitch arsenal that will make his transition to a starter seamless. He has a devastating slider/sweeper combo that typically generates a whiff rate in the 40% range. Holmes has now added a “kick changeup” that generated a 59% whiff rate over the spring.
It’s a tough matchup against the Astros today for Holmes. Houston’s top three hitters are all going to be tougher Ks for him, but the 7-9 hitters will be his sweet spot to rack up the punchouts. He should be able to face them twice and will need to take advantage.
I’m projecting Holmes for closer to -130 to go over 4.5 strikeouts, but he’s the type of pitcher I think I (and the market) am underestimating currently. I want to invest in him before any potential breakout.
I’m only betting 0.5 units because I typically like to have at least one start to go off of before getting into the groove with these. So, treat the first handful of days as an informational gathering time.
I’m just happy baseball is back. Happy Opening Day!
_InlineAdBlockRestart=3