Last week, I introduced the world to the S&K 500, which will see me break down the starting pitchers for any given night.
Tonight, I have one bet, and that’s an over in the Yankees-Guardians matchup.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screen-Shot-2025-04-21-at-2.20.43-PM.png” buttontext=”Tail Koerner on Clarke Schmidt Ks” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1498035004&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Clarke Schmidt Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyy.png” awayname=”Yankees” awayslug=”new-york-yankees” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cle.png” homename=”Guardians” homeslug=”cleveland-guardians” date=”Monday, April 21″ time=”6:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
I have this closer to -120, so just slight value on the number — but Schmidt is flashing a strong buy signal in the S&K500 with a +21.6 Priority Score. He was limited to 73 pitches in his season debut (coming off shoulder fatigue), but looked sharp with a 34% expected K rate despite managing just two actual strikeouts in a tough matchup vs. KC.
Schmidt leaned into a cutter-sweeper-knuckle curve mix and ditched his sinker (just 10% usage, down from 21% last year), which should help elevate his K% going forward. His zone rate was strong (61%), and while the chase rate was low (11%), he should be able to generate more swings outside of the zone against the Guardians tonight.
Expect a bump to about 85 pitches, which makes this a solid buy-low spot.
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