As the MLB season heats up (literally) on July 4, sharp bettors are always on the lookout for actionable insights across various MLB prop bets, including the coveted home run picks market.
That’s where our MLB PRO Projections come in handy.
Our cutting-edge tools are designed to uncover value by analyzing discrepancies between our projected player outcomes against market odds. Today, we’ll cover a grand total of five home run picks to either bet — or fade! — using our proprietary betting data for the Fourth of July.
The top MLB picks to go yard feature payouts of +675, +775 and +1250. Let’s dive into it!
MLB Prop Bets | Home Run Picks to Bet (July 4)
Yainer Diaz (+675)
Diaz of the Houston Astros has a big year in 2023, having knocked 23 home runs in just 104 games. His powerful swing and ability to make hard contact make him a consistent threat at the plate, and the supporting data from our PRO Signals further bolsters his case today vs. the Blue Jays.
Our analytical models project Diaz to hit 0.2 home runs in this game, while the betting market offers considerably longer odds at +675 (BetMGM). This discrepancy opens up an edge of 6.8% and a grade of C+
Jose Altuve (+775)
Leveraging PRO Projections, another Astros hitter provides clear value in betting to homer today: Altuve.
With PRO Projections pinning Altuve’s expected home runs at 0.21, significantly higher than odds of +775 (BetMGM), the edge here is substantial. A 7.5% edge reveals a notable discrepancy between market expectations and our advanced modeling.
Cody Bellinger (+1250)
Bellinger of the Chicago Cubs is the top value pick to go yard Thursday, with a B grade.
The odds for Bellinger’s home run projection significantly differ from the market odds, creating an opportunity for a large payout. Bellinger’s projection stands at 0.2 HR, while his odds are tabbed at +1250 (BetMGM)
This discrepancy amounts to an 8.2% edge per our models, signaling a clear look vs. the Phillies.
MLB Prop Bets | Home Run Picks to Fade (July 4)
PRO Projections don’t just release picks on players to homer; our tools also list hitters in which taking the under on 0.5 home runs (at appropriate sportsbooks which allow an over/under market) would actually be a profitable proposition.
Advanced models are bearish on these players for July 4.
Aaron Judge under 0.5 HRs (-185)
Although Judge is known for his power at the plate, data shows taking the New York Yankees slugger to go homerless vs. the Reds today a strategic play. DraftKings has under 0.5 at -185 odds, a B- strength play.
Brent Rooker under 0.5 HRs (-400)
PRO Projections show value on betting against Rooker of the Oakland Athletics Thursday vs. the Angels, even at -400 odds (BetMGM).
He’s likely to cool down after homering in back-to-back games and five of the last seven.
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.