Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday, April 2.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my Wednesday MLB predictions and picks.
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MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Wednesday, April 2
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tex.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cin.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tb.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Washington Nationals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”San Francisco Giants” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sf.png” secondfullname=”Houston Astros” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyy.png”][/teammatchup] |
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Rangers vs. Reds
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Jack Leiter (TEX) vs. Hunter Greene (CIN)
Jack Leiter (5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K) and Hunter Greene (5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 K) impressed in their first starts of the 2025 season.
Greene turned the corner in 2024, lowering his expected ERA (xERA) from 4.00 in 2022 and 3.82 in 2023 to 3.03 last season, despite reduced pitch-modeling metrics (114 Stuff+, down from 119 and 125) and a decreased K-BB% (18.3% vs. 20.4% career).
Greene swapped a below-average changeup (78 Stuff+) for an above-average splitter (109 Stuff+), but he also modified the shape of his fastball, changed his pitch locations, and generated far weaker contact (32% vs. 44% in 2023, 40.4% in 2022) than he had in the past.
His fastball sat at 99.2 mph on Opening Day, which increased his Stuff+ rating to a career-high 132 (119 career). Still, the velocity bump didn’t translate to his other pitch types; I doubt he can maintain those gains.
Perhaps he was a bit extra amped for Opening Day. FIP projections put Greene between 3.7 and 4.00 the rest of the way, but I still like him to outperform those projections after finishing with a 2.75 ERA and 3.03 xERA last season.
Leiter struggled with command as a rookie (9.8% walk rate) but showed both improved stuff (113 Stuff+; 103 last season) and command (103 Location+; 96 last season) in his first start of 2025.
Leiter’s fastball velocity increased to 97.9 mph (up from 96.4 last season) and he saw a similar velocity bump to his changeup (91.6 mph, up from 89.5) and slider (88.7 mph, up from 86.8). Moreover, he reduced his four-seam usage by 17%, while introducing a sinker 29% of the time in that outing — and he traded some sliders for changeups.
Leiter, who’s permitted six career steals on six attempts, will need to control the Reds‘ running game; since the start of the 2023 season, the Reds have 44 more stolen bases (399) than any other team (Washington 355; Milwaukee 349; Tampa Bay 344).
Typically, I might have concerns that Corey Seager would sit out for a 12:40 afternoon game following a night game, but he had Sunday off. I’d expect the full complement of the Rangers‘ regulars on Wednesday.
I prefer the Rangers’ lineup (projected 117 vs. 104 wRC+ vs. righties). Still, I also give them the bullpen edge (projected 18th vs. 27th in bullpen value), especially with a fully rested group after Nathan Eovaldi pitched a shutout on Tuesday.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (bet to +115)
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Pirates vs. Rays
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Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. Ryan Pepiot (TB)
Paul Skenes was far from his best in his Opening Day start against the Marlins (5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K), yet he still posted better pitch-modeling metrics than he had in 2024 (120 Stuff+, 122 Pitching+, 3.29 botERA vs. 116, 112, 3.62 last season).
Skenes introduced his new sinker 28% of the time, and increased his curveball usage (10.8%) while reducing his four-seam, slider, and changeup usage as a result. Still, his fastball and slider velocity fell below his 2024 averages.
By incorporating a sinker, as opposed to additional four-seamers, Skenes may see a reduction in both strikeout rate and home run rate, but maintain a similar number of total strikeouts because the sinkers will generate weak contact early in counts that will allow him to face additional hitters in every outing.
Skenes is the No. 1 rated starting pitcher in my model; projection systems have him finishing with an average FIP of 2.86 this season (range of 2.68 to 3.17).
Ryan Pepiot was incredibly impressive in his Opening Day start against Colorado (6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K) while mixing in a new cutter and curveball.
Pepiot posted career-best pitch-modeling metrics in that outing (113 Stuff+, 123 Pitching+, 2.05 botERA), and I’d expect him to outperform his 2025 FIP projections (range from 3.96 to 4.30); Pepiot posted a 3.60 ERA and 3.64 xERA last season.
Pepiot can compete with Skenes for five or six innings, but the Rays should have a significant bullpen advantage on Wednesday, given how the Pirates‘ season has unfolded.
The Bucs lost three consecutive games via walk-off in Miami; they had to use Cameron Mlodzinski (a converted reliever) as their No. 4 starter, and called up top-100 prospect Thomas Harrington on Wednesday to take the roster spot of former closer David Bednar. Unless they send Harrington back down, they’ll be a reliever short on Wednesday (seven pitchers), and several have worked three times in four or five days.
The Pirates are trying to make it to an off-day on Thursday to reset their bullpen; conversely, none of the Rays’ relievers are overworked, based on recent usage.
I project Skenes as a favorite for the first five innings (F5), but wouldn’t expect the Rays’ bullpen and lineup to flip this contest late, if they can keep it close early.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (bet to +105)
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Nationals vs. Blue Jays
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MacKenzie Gore (WAS) vs. Easton Lucas (TOR)
MacKenzie Gore had a career-best start on Opening Day against the Phillies (6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 13 K).
He threw his fastball less than 50% of the time (57.7% career) while mixing in his slider and a new cutter more frequently, but there was no increase in velocity, and his slider (91 Stuff+, 89 career) grades out as his worst pitch by stuff metrics.
Easton Lucas will make his first major-league start for the Blue Jays. Lucas projects for a FIP between 4.24 and 4.60 as a reliever, and he’s never started more than nine games in a minor-league season. However, Lucas has three average or above-average pitches, including a 101 Stuff+ rating on his four-seamer, 100 on his cutter and 122 on his slider.
Toronto can use its bullpen fairly aggressively behind Lucas. Jeff Hoffman (who pitched Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday) is the only Jays reliever who has thrown three times in four days.
I don’t like either bullpen, but I do give Toronto a slight edge (22nd vs. 29th) in relief pitching. I view them as the vastly superior defensive club after finishing first in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and fifth in Outs Above Average (OAA) last season; the Nationals ranked 26th by both advanced defensive metrics.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (bet to -110)
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Giants vs. Astros
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Landen Roupp (SF) vs. Framber Valdez (HOU)
Landen Roupp (4.05 xERA, 4.17 xFIP, 9.7% K-BB% in 2024) will make his 2025 debut against Framber Valdez in Houston.
Roupp displayed extreme pitch usage last season, relying on a curveball or sinker more than 80% of the time combined, leading to a high ground-ball rate and low home-run rate throughout his entire minor-league career (0.4 HR/9 in the minors, ground-ball rate >50% at every level).
Pitching models love the curveball (113 Stuff+), but Roupp carries a high walk rate and is subject to BABIP variance.
However, he should benefit from the presence of elite pitcher framer Patrick Bailey, who had Sunday off and should be in the lineup with another off-day on Thursday.
Over the past two seasons, Bailey has 33 DRS, which ranks fourth amongst players at all positions — 2024 NL Platinum Glove-winner Brice Turang has 34 over the same span — and includes 26 runs saved from his pitch-framing skills (and eight from stolen-base prevention). Bailey led the position with 15 Strike Zone Runs Saved and 20 DRS last season.
Conversely, the Astros have one of the worst pitch framers in Yainer Diaz, who has posted a -7 rating in the same metrics over the past two seasons. However, Diaz makes up for subpar pitch-framing with a strong, accurate throwing arm and good pitch blocking, putting him at 0 DRS.
Like Roupp, Framber Valdez (career 62.4% ground-ball rate) typically avoids the long ball (0.72 HR/9). He’s clearly the more effective starting pitcher (projected FIP range 3.42 to 3.72), but I prefer the Giants‘ bullpen, even though Ryan Walker has worked on consecutive days.
I like the under in this matchup compared to my projected total of 7.27. I would also bet the Giants moneyline down to +138.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (bet to +138) | Under 8 (bet to 7.5, +100)
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Diamondbacks vs. Yankees
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Zac Gallen (ARI) vs. Carlos Rodon (NYY)
I bet the Yankees‘ under on Opening Day. It’s their only under that has hit this season, and am inclined to run back the bet with Carlos Rodon (118 Stuff+, 119 Pitching+, 3.21 botERA) looking sharp in place of Gerrit Cole.
Rodon maintained a similar velocity level as 2024, but nearly halved his four-seam fastball usage to 25.8% (down from 49.4% in 2024), while emphasizing his changeup (+8%), slider (+5%) and introducing a new sinker (12.4% usage rate; 116 Stuff+), which is potentially the most significant addition.
Rodon posted a 61.5% ground-ball rate on Opening Day (39.2% career) — if he can maintain some of those gains and also reduce his home run rate below 1 (1.14 career), he’s a Cy Young candidate over an entire healthy season.
Zac Gallen struggled in his first start (4 IP, 4 R, 4 BB, 4 K) while pitching at a reduced velocity (92.9 mph, down from 93.7 in 2025) and with inferior pitch-modeling metrics (86 Stuff+, down from 93 in 2024, 99 in 2023; 88 Pitching+ down from 101; 5.20 botERA, up from 4.51) compared to both career averages and his 2024 sample.
Gallen’s underlying ERA indicators have increased (3.97 xERA, 3.62 xFIP in 2024; 4.16 and 3.49 in 2023, 3.17 and 3.31 in 2022), and his pitch-modeling metrics have declined (Pitching+ down from 111, to 108 and 101), each of the past three seasons.
Still, strong wind (11 mph from right field) and colder temperatures (44 degrees at first pitch) lowered my total to 7.46 for this matchup. Bet Under 8 to -110.
Pick: Under 8 (bet to -110)
Sean Zerillo’s MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, April 2
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- Astros/Giants, Under 8 (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to 7.5, +100)
- Diamondbacks/Yankees, Under 8 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -110)
- San Francisco Giants (+140, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +138)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+112, 0.5u) at BetRivers(bet to +105)
- Texas Rangers (+120, 0.5u) at ESPNBET (bet to +115)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+104, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)