Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, April 23.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-11.46.57%E2%80%AFPM.png” buttontext=”Wednesday Moneyline Parlay” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1502525425&deeplinkId[1]=ML1502546658&deeplinkId[2]=ML1502611220&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author’s formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Wednesday, April 23
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Yankees vs. Guardians
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Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs. Luis L. Ortiz (CLE)
Although he projects closer to a No. 4 starter (projected FIP range of 4.17 to 4.38), Luis L. Ortiz has posted league-average pitch modeling metrics over the past two seasons (combined 99 Pitching+, 4.02 botERA).
He’s tinkered with his pitch mix in Cleveland, throwing more four-seam fastballs, cutters and changeups, and fewer sinkers (26% last season vs. 8% in his last start), particularly in his last two outings.
The cutter (88 Stuff+) drags down Ortiz’s overall pitch modeling profile; every other offering carries a 99 Stuff+ rating, or higher (99 fastball, 106 slider, 109 sinker, 101 changeup), and he’s paired up the two highest strikeout totals of his career (10 and eight) in consecutive appearances, after reducing his sinker usage.
Ortiz is a potential breakout candidate (3.77 xFIP vs. 4.59 in 2024) if he can maintain a strikeout rate around 25% (currently 24.7%) with a more efficient pitch mix. ‘
I projected the Guardians as +115 underdogs for the first five innings (F5) and +108 underdogs for the full game on Wednesday.
There could be some surprise lineup changes for an afternoon tilt, but both the Guardians and Yankees have an off-day on Thursday. They can afford to play their starters and air out their respective bullpens a bit more aggressively in Wednesday’s rubber match.
I don’t project value on either side of the total (projected 7.96, listed 8).
Pick: Guardians F5 Moneyline (bet to +123) | Guardians Moneyline (bet to +117)
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Mariners vs. Red Sox
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Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs. Sean Newcomb (BOS)
Emerson Hancock (career 5.52 FIP; projected FIP range of 4.54 to 4.81) and Sean Newcomb (career 4.58 xFIP; projected FIP range of 4.11 to 4.47) project as No. 5 starting pitchers, but with these clubs slated to play one another on Thursday — without an off-day before the weekend — both teams need innings from their Wednesday starters.
Newcomb’s projections have improved in-season after posting a respectable 23.5% strikeout rate and 4.00 xFIP through four starts; still, his pitch modeling metrics align with the lower end of his projections (95 Stuff+, 85 Pitching+, 4.90 botERA) due to abysmal command (91 Location+, 11.1% BB%), which has been present throughout his career (career 93 Location+, 12.3% BB%, 5.00 botERA).
Seattle’s offense (115 wRC+, sixth in MLB) has walked a lot this season (10.8% walk rate, third). While they strike out a lot, too, its rate is about 5% lower on the road than at home (closer to 4% last season), since T-Mobile Park is such a difficult place to hit. I’d expect them to ramp up Newcomb’s pitch count quickly.
Pitching models like Newcomb’s curveball (123 Stuff+), but he only throws it 20% of the time, and every other pitch rates at a 91 or below.
Hancock’s fastball (100 Stuff+) and Slider (109) graded out as well as they ever have in his first two starts of 2025. Still, Hancock threw his sinker, which grades as a worse offering, more than ever before (51.8%, up from 29.8% last season), and he also reduced the slider usage (8.9% vs. 17.3% career) in favor of more changeups (25% usage, 88 Stuff+).
The changeup isn’t effective enough to neutralize lefties (Career 5.41 xFIP, 3.7% K-BB% vs. 4.93 xFIP, 11.2% K-BB% against righties), and even though Hancock is showing improved command, Boston’s lineup should hit the ball hard when he puts pitches over the plate.
There’s not much elite pitching on either side of this matchup, except in the late innings.
Boston’s bullpen ranks 12th in xFIP and 10th in K-BB%. However, Seattle’s bullpen ranks 18th and 26th, respectively, by the same metrics. Both teams rank in the top 11 by Pitching+ and botERA, but neither has particularly trustworthy middle relievers.
I set Wednesday’s total at 10.51 runs; bet Over 10 to -110.
Pick: Over 9.5 (bet to 10, -110)
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Dodgers vs. Cubs
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TBD (LAD) vs. Matthew Boyd (CHC)
The Cubs have played the most chaotic games this season, including last Friday’s 13-11 win over the Diamondbacks and Tuesday’s 11-10 win over the Dodgers.
The Dodgers used six relievers behind Dustin May in Tuesday’s loss, including recent callup Noah Davis (who threw a game-losing pitch), who supplanted Bobby Miller on the Dodgers’ roster and was initially expected to start on Wednesday.
Unless the Dodgers make another roster move, they’ll have to throw a bullpen game on Wednesday, likely featuring Ben Casparius (3.01 xERA, 100 Pitching+, 3.28 botERA) for a multi-inning stint.
Casparius has shown an elite slider (133 Stuff+) alongside an above-average cutter (110) and curveball (112) out of the Dodgers’ bullpen. He mainly worked as a starting pitcher in the minors.
Pitching usage concerns are somewhat alleviated on both sides following an off-day on Monday, and with another looming on Thursday.
Matthew Boyd (3.33 xERA) threw well against the Dodgers in Los Angeles (6 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 7 K on April 11) and has suppressed hard contact (28.1 vs. 33.4% career; 3.33 xERA) through four starts.
But pitching models think it’s an aberration (86 Pitching+, 4.56 botERA), and projections I trust expect him to perform closer to a league-average pitcher (projected 4.00 FIP from OOPSY and 4.04 from Steamer; ZIPS is far more optimistic at 3.53) going forward.
After devastatingly losing so many Cubs Unders (15-8-2 to the Over in 2025), it’s nice to bet an Over in their game for a change, and hope their awful bullpen (27th with a 4.68 xFIP and 6.7% K-BB%) continues to implode in the late innings.
Pick: Over 9 (bet to -107)
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Blue Jays vs. Astros
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Bowden Francis (TOR) vs. Ryan Gusto (HOU)
Wednesday will mark the third consecutive start where I have bet on Ryan Gusto (4.02 xERA, 3.69 xFIP, 107 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+, 2.55 botERA), who is beginning to remind me of Spencer Schwellenbach from last season.
Gusto — an 11th-round draft pick out of Florida Southwestern State College in 2019 — was a completely unheralded prospect and didn’t necessarily stand out in the minors last season (3.70 ERA, 5.00 xFIP, 4.37 FIP, 14.1% K-BB% in Triple-A). That said, he has a vast arsenal with at least six pitches — most of which grade out well by pitching models — to go with above-average command, and he gained a tick on his fastballs and two ticks on his changeup, relative to last season in the minors.
Most importantly, Gusto’s stuff has held up as well or better as a starter (107 Stuff+, 113 Pitching+, 2.31 botERA) than it did in four appearances as a reliever (107 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+, 2.86 botERA). Typically, you’d expect a decrease in arsenal effectiveness moving from the bullpen to a starting role, but Gusto’s pitch modeling metrics have held steady, which is extremely impressive.
I expect Gusto to severely outperform his rest-of-season FIP projections (projected range of 4.38 to 4.60); his 4.02 xERA and 3.69 xFIP seem much more predictive, compared with his updated arsenal data — the fastball is explosive.
— Follow @AstrosFuture (@FutureStros) July 12, 2024
Bowden Francis is trending downward after a breakout 2024 campaign (3.39 xFIP). He’s lost a tick on his fastball and more than two ticks on his splitter, lowering his Stuff+ rating from 99 to 94, and raising his botERA from 3.77 to 4.50.
He’s fortunate to own a 3.13 ERA, compared to a 6.50 xERA and a 54.1% hard-hit rate through four starts.
Francis has maintained a BABIP of .207 throughout his career. Since he entered the league in 2022, Francis easily has the lowest BABIP among starting pitchers (.178), with Tony Gonsolin (.219), Ronel Blanco (.229), and Tyler Wells (.239) ranking as his closest competition.
There’s nothing in his profile to suggest that Francis should have a particularly low BABIP — his hard-hit rate and batted-ball distribution essentially align with the MLB averages. And while the Blue Jays play excellent team defense, it’s not enough to explain a mark nearly 80 points off the MLB average (.282 in 2025) over a multi-year span.
Either Francis is an extreme outlier, or he has been fortunate, and logic dictates that the latter is significantly more likely.
Pick: Astros F5 Moneyline (bet to -118) | Astros Moneyline (bet to -115)
Rangers vs. Athletics
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Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs. JP Sears (A’s)
Kumar Rocker (4.11 xERA, 4.58 botERA, 3.83 xFIP) has been enigmatic through four starts.
Still, projection systems continue to view him as a No. 2-caliber starting pitcher (projected FIP range of 3.53 to 4.10) with a highly effective sinker and slider combination (season peaks of 120 and 121 Stuff+, respectively) — if both pitches are working (combined 71% usage in 2025).
JP Sears (3.62 xERA, 3.57 botERA) has pitched well through four starts, but there’s nothing in his underlying profile to suggest that he’s any different than last season.
Sears is throwing his slider (career 123 Stuff+) more frequently, bumping its usage rate from 33.9% to 43.3% year over year.
Projection systems continue to view Sears as a No.4 or No. 5 starting pitcher (projected FIP range of 4.48 to 5.19) and he could struggle with a Rangers lineup that recently welcomed back righties Josh Jung and Wyatt Langford — making their lineup one of the deepest lineups — one through nine — in MLB.
Nick Kurtz will make his MLB debut for the Athletics and help their club form one of the deeper offenses in baseball, too. I project both offenses to a 116 wRC+ against the opposing starting pitcher.
However, I prefer the Rangers’ position player group both defensively and on the basepaths, and I also give them the starting pitching and bullpen edges.
From an awards perspective, it’s discouraging to see Kurtz effectively sit against a lefty (Patrick Corbin) on Tuesday (otherwise they would have put him on the roster).
If Kurtz is merely a strong-side platoon bat playing first base, it limits his WAR upside. Still, if Kurtz hits like he did in the minors, he should force his way into everyday playing time rather quickly.
Kurtz projects for a wRC+ between 94 and 124 from the jump (average 110), with as many as 20 homers in 430 plate appearances from FanGraphs Depth Charts.
He’s starting less than 1 WAR behind the AL Rookie leaders (Kristian Campbell at 0.9 and Jacob Wilson at 0.8). Wilson projects for 2.3 to 3.9 WAR the rest of the way, while Campbell projects between 2.5 and 2.9 WAR; Kurtz’s most optimistic projection is just 1.7 — he’s going to need to put up big offensive numbers to overcome the positional WAR adjustment.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (bet to -110)
Sean Zerillo’s MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, April 23
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- Cleveland Guardians F5 (+128, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to +123)
- Cleveland Guardians (+130, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to +117)
- Dodgers/Cubs, Over 9 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -107)
- Houston Astros F5 (-110, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to -118)
- Houston Astros (-103, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -115)
- Mariners/Red Sox, Over 9.5 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 10, -110)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (-125, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to +122)
- Phillies/Mets, Under 7.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
- Rockies/Royals, Over 8.5 (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to 9, -105)
- San Diego Padres (+140, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to +133)
- Texas Rangers (-104, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
- Washington Nationals (+120, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +116)
- White Sox/Twins, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -117)