Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and picks for Mariners vs Red Sox, Phillies vs Mets, Royals vs Rockies and more games on Tuesday, April 22
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for Tuesday MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-21-at-10.41.33%E2%80%AFPM.png” buttontext=”Tuesday MLB Parlay” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1499855603&deeplinkId[1]=ML1499864343&deeplinkId[2]=ML1499917713&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author’s formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions & Picks for Tuesday
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Mariners vs. Red Sox
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Bryce Miller (SEA) vs. Brayan Bello (BOS)
Brayan Bello — Boston’s Opening Day starter in 2024 — didn’t pitch in spring training due to a right shoulder strain. He’s set to make his 2025 MLB debut after four rehab starts in the minors, where he gave up up a high number of hits and runs (14 IP, 18 H, 12 R, 4 BB, 21 K) despite controlling the strike zone.
Bello ramped up to 71 pitches in his last outing; he struck out four of the final seven batters he faced, hitting 98 mph on the gun (career average of 95.9 mph) in the fifth inning.
Despite a two-year decline in Stuff+ rating (105 in his rookie season, 102 in 2023, and 97 in 2024), Bello’s command has improved every year (Location+ up from 96 to 103 and 107 last season), and he showed career-bests in both Pitching+ (107) and botERA (3.85) last season.
Still, his xERA (4.56) showed a career-worst mark as Bello — and the entire Red Sox Staff — opted for sink or spin rather than four-seamers (4.8% usage in 2024, down from 20.7% in 2023). Bello’s two-seamer (career 114 Stuff+) grades out as his best pitch and helps him maintain a high ground-ball rate (53.9% career).
Unfortunately, both his slider (95 Stuff+, down from 97 in 2023 and 106 in his rookie season) and changeup (84 Stuff+, down from 95 and 96) grade as below-average offerings by stuff, which is why Bello’s improved command of those pitches (114 Location+ on the slider, 106 on the changeup, 103 on the sinker) is vital (101, 97 and 99 respectively in his rookie season).
However, it’s worth noting that his slider in rehab looked significantly sharper than his slider throughout last season.
Improved infield defense should also help Bello to better results. Despite finishing fifth with 49 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) last season, Boston’s outfield (+48) was elite, but its infield (-14 at catcher, -15 combined at the other non-pitcher spots) was a defensive disaster.
Carlos Narvaez (+2 DRS in 2025) is an upgrade defensively at catcher over Connor Wong (-14 DRS in 2024), and having Trevor Story (neutral in 2025, +20 combined since 2021) and Alex Bregman (+2 in 2025; +11 combined since 2021) as neutral to slightly above-average defenders on the left side of the infield is a significant upgrade over Rafael Devers (-9 in 2024, combined -38 since 2021) and David Hamilton (-4 at shortstop in 2024). Kristian Campbell (-3 DRS) has struggled in limited time at second base, however.
As I have mentioned numerous times earlier this season, I prefer Boston’s lineup against right-handed pitching (projected 110 wRC+) as opposed to lefties (projected 102 wRC+), given the projected quality of its left-handed bats. And Seattle’s Bryce Miller has shown both significant home/road splits and lefty/righty splits early in his career:
- 3.36 xFIP, 21.8% K-BB% vs. righties; 4.81 xFIP, 12.9% K-BB% vs. lefties
- 3.77 xFIP, 20% K-BB% at home; 4.41 xFIP, 14.2% K-BB% on the road
T-Mobile Park in Seattle has the lowest Park Factor for base hits (about 10-11% below the MLB average) due to poor sightlines for batters, and Mariners pitchers tend to look more vulnerable when hitters can see what’s coming on the road.
Miller carries significant upside, with four above-average offerings by pitch modeling metrics. He has struggled with command this season (11.6% walk rate, 89 Location+, down from 6.1% and 103 career), and his velocity was down until his most recent start against the Reds (94.2 mph through his first three starts; 95.4 mph in Cincinnati).
I projected the Red Sox as -138 favorites and would bet their moneyline to -130. Additionally, I set the total at 8.46 runs, and would bet Under 9 to -110.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline (bet to -130) | Under 9 (bet to -110)
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Phillies vs. Mets
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/phi.png” awayname=”Phillies” awayslug=”philadelphia-phillies” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” homename=”Mets” homeslug=”new-york-mets” date=”Tuesday, Apr 22″ time=”7:10 p.m. ET” network=”SNY” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”-1.5″ col1awayline=”+125″ col1hometext=”+1.5″ col1homeline=”-150″ col2awaytext=”8″ col2hometext=”8″ col2awayline=”-105o / -115u” col2homeline=”-105o / -115u” col3awaytext=”-130″ col3hometext=”+115″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/40268_MGM48x48light@3x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs. Griffin Canning (NYM)
Through four starts, Cristopher Sanchez has delivered on the ace-level promise he showed in spring. He’s displayed increased velocity across his entire arsenal (1.4 to 1.6 mph) that has led to both improved pitch modeling metrics (116 Stuff+ and a 3.16 botERA vs. 107 and 3.16 in 2024) and underlying results (2.64 xERA, down from 3.56, and a 10.4% increase in strikeout rate.)
If Sanchez can maintain a K-BB% in the mid twenties (16% career), alongside his elite ground-ball rate (56.9% career), he’s going to be extremely difficult to score runs against, particularly for left-handed hitters (2.26 xFIP, 29.2% K-BB% in 2025).
Sanchez only throws three pitches — all three are plus offerings (115 Stuff+ sinker, 116 changeup, 117 slider). He’s developed into a legitimate NL Cy Young contender and is under team control through 2030.
Griffin Canning was a typically efficient David Stearns signing (one year, $ 4.25 million). Statcast indicates that he has nearly earned his 3.43 ERA to date (3.87 xERA), and pitching models suggest that he (102 Location+) will improve his walk rate (11.4% vs. 8.5% career) in the future.
Historically, Canning has had a sharp slider (career 106 Stuff+), and he’s throwing it more than ever before (36.5% vs. 27% career), even though the stuff rating on it (97) is down. His changeup (102 Stuff+) also grades out as good as it ever has in his career (94 career average).
Canning hasn’t modified his pitch mix all that much — aside from the increased slider usage — but he has posted a career-best 54% ground-ball rate (40% career), which helped me notice that Canning has altered his delivery and raised his horizontal release points since joining the Mets this year.
I’m pretty sure this (in addition to variance) is the reason for Canning’s new ground-ball titl:
If the new delivery helps Canning maintain a high ground-ball rate, he could remain a league-average pitcher and outperform his projections (projected FIP range of 4.22-4.57).
And although I give the Phillies the pitching advantage throughout this matchup — as I also prefer their bullpen (even though the Mets have better bullpen results this season) — the Mets have the better lineup, both offensively and defensively.
I give the Phillies a slight baserunning advantage; I project the Mets for a 116 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, compared to a projection of 112 for the Phillies against righties.
I set the total at 7.37 runs; bet Under 8 to -115.
I would bet the Mets at +120 or higher, compared to a projection of +108 — wait for that one to come into range before placing the bet.
Picks: Under 8 (bet to -115) | Mets Moneyline (wait for +120 or better)
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Cardinals vs. Braves
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/stl.png” awayname=”Cardinals” awayslug=”st.-louis-cardinals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” homename=”Braves” homeslug=”atlanta-braves” date=”Tuesday, Apr 22″ time=”7:15 p.m. ET” network=”FDSSO” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-160″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”+135″ col2awaytext=”9″ col2hometext=”9″ col2awayline=”100o / -120u” col2homeline=”100o / -120u” col3awaytext=”+125″ col3hometext=”-150″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/40268_MGM48x48light@3x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]
Andre Pallante (STL) vs. Michael Petersen (ATL)
Books opened the line for this contest based upon an anticipated pitching matchup between Spencer Strider and Steven Matz, with some adjusting to the Cardinals‘ announcement of Andre Pallante instead of Matz.
I bet the Over 8 early, projecting a total between Strider (who struggled with command in his first start off the IL) and Pallante at nearly 8.7 runs.
Strider subsequently injured his hamstring while throwing on Monday afternoon, and the majority of books pulled down their odds for Tuesday’s game. Some remained up, however, and I added additional bets on Over 8 and the Cardinals moneyline, based upon the original matchup (the book still had Matz listed for the Cardinals).
The Braves have yet to announce Tuesday’s starter, but called up Michael Petersen to take Strider’s roster spot.
Petersen has worked as a reliever in the minors and made his Braves debut out of the bullpen on April 13, flashing impressive stuff (120 Stuff+, including 118 on his fastball, 123 on his cutter, and 116 on his sinker).
Scott Blewett (career 4.13 xFIP in 37 1/3 innings) should feature in a multi-inning stint for the Braves, whose high-leverage relievers, aside from Raisel Iglesias, are well rested and can finish off the final four innings of the contest.
Pallante will attempt to roll double plays and keep the ball on the ground (67.2% ground-ball rate); still, why we’ve bet on him numerous times this season, he’s also due for some regression (3,22 ERA vs 3.89 xERA, with a .219 BABIP and 80.8% strand rate vs. .297 and 75% career).
Based upon pitch type run values, Marcell Ozuna seems well-equipped to damage Pallante’s arsenal.
I projected the Braves as -136 favorites in a bullpen game, and would bet the Cardinals down to +150.
Additionally, I would bet the Over to 8.5 (-112), compared to a projection of 9.09, in favorable hitting conditions (74 degrees at first pitch with moderately high humidity).
Picks: Cardinals Moneyline (small to +150) | Over 8 (bet to 8.5, -112)
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Rockies vs. Royals
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Kyle Freeland (COL) vs. Kris Bubic (KC)
Conditions should also be hitter-friendly in Kansas City on Tuesday — 78 degrees at first pitch, with nine mph winds blowing out to left field, although the humidity isn’t quite as intense as in Atlanta.
These teams have had the two worst offenses in baseball this season, with wRC+ marks of 67 (Colorado) and 66 (Kansas City); it is a much more significant drop-off for the Royals (96 wRC+, 20th in 2024) than the Rockies (82 wRC+, 29th in 2024).
The Royals’ offense really excelled at home last season (100 wRC+, 15th), posting the lowest strikeout rate (17.9% K%) among home teams. Conversely, they ranked 21st in wRC+ (92) on the road, and dropped to sixth in strikeout rate (20.9%) in away contests.
However, in a limited sample this year, they have been equally bad at home (68 wRC+, -11.7% K-BB%) and away (66 wRC+, -15.2% K-BB%) from Kauffman Stadium, but their strikeout rate is about 5% lower at home than on the road.
Kris Bubic appears to be a breakout candidate, showcasing a significantly improved fastball (stuff up to 106 from 88 career) and utilizing his newfound sweeper just as frequently (36.6%) back in the rotation as he did out of the bullpen in 2024.
Bubic has always maintained a high walk rate (9.7%) despite average command (career 101 Location+). His stuff is better, but it’s more difficult for him to locate those nastier pitches.
Still, both his botERA (3.50) and xERA (3.51) are substantially better than they were in any other season spent as a starter (4.77 botERA in 2023, 4.70 in 2022, 4.99 in 2021, 5.40 in 2020; 4.04 xERA in 2023, 5.67 in 2022, 5.30 in 2021, 5.30 in 2020).
Conversely, while Ryan Felter seemed like an intriguing arm in previous seasons (4.31 xERA, 4.44 botERA in 2024) — particularly when he’s not pitching in Colorado — Felter’s velocity and stuff ratings have dipped this season; he’s lost a tick off of his fastball (down from 94.6 to 93.6), and 1.4 mph on his sweeper and 0.9 mph on his slider.
Moreover, Feltner’s sinker (career 100+ Stuff+) and curveball (106) were his only above-average pitches; both have fallen below 100 this season (94 and 99, respectively).
I set Tuesday’s total in Kansas City at 9.19 runs; bet Over 8.5 to -115.
Pick: Over 8.5 (bet to -115)
Sean Zerillo’s MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, April 22
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Boston Red Sox (-126, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -130)
- Cardinals/Braves, Over 8 (-110, 0.75u) at FanDuel (bet to 8.5, -112); placed before pitching change
- Mariners/Red Sox, Under 9 (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -110)
- Rockies/Royals, Over 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to -115)
- Phillies/Mets, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+180, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to +145); placed before pitching change