Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, May 6.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Padres vs Yankees, Mets vs Diamondbacks, Pirates vs Cardinals, Tigers vs Rockies and Giants vs Cubs. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-06-at-12.20.06%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”+2418 Tuesday MLB Parlay on BetMGM” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1540249397&deeplinkId[1]=ML1540266028&deeplinkId[2]=ML1540269346&deeplinkId[3]=ML1540271188&deeplinkId[4]=ML1540270021&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author’s formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections for Tuesday, May 6
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Padres vs. Yankees
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Michael King (SD) vs. Clarke Schmidt (NYY)
Michael King has morphed into an ace since leaving the Bronx in the Juan Soto trade, posting a 2.60 xERA and 21.8% K-BB% through seven starts in 2025.
King has three above-average pitches (104 Stuff+ on his sinker, 102 on his four-seamer, and 114 on his slider) and also possesses above-average command.
While I greatly respect King, Clarke Schmidt has pitched significantly better than his 5.52 ERA might indicate, compared to a 3.54 xERA and 3.68 botERA.
Schmidt has a pair of above-average breaking balls (115 on his knuckle curve and 103 on his slider) and projections like him to approximate a league-average arm the rest of the season (projected FIP range of 3.96 to 4.32).
San Diego has the bullpen advantage in this series, but the Yankees‘ relievers (7th in xFIP, 8th in K-BB%) have outperformed expectations considering the struggles of Devin Williams (5.51 xERA, 5.7% K-BB%), who blew Monday’s matchup.
Still, the Yankees have the better position player group, even without Jazz Chisholm Jr. I project their lineup as six points better in terms of wRC+ (115 vs. 109) compared to San Diego’s, and I view them as the superior defensive club, too (third in Defensive Runs Saved, 19th in Outs Above Average vs. 17th and 27th for San Diego).
Pick: Yankees Moneyline (bet to -115)
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/Paul-Goldschmidt-5_6_25.jpg” linktext=”Padres vs Yankees Predictions, Parlay, Picks, Odds for Tuesday, May 6″ link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/san-diego-padres-vs-new-york-yankees-predictions-parlay-picks-odds-tuesday-may-6-qs”][/relatedarticle]
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Giants vs. Cubs
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Justin Verlander vs. Colin Rea (CHC)
I project Colin Rea as a slightly better starting pitcher than 42-year-old, future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander.
The projection market slightly prefers Verlander, although the difference is relatively negligible (projected FIP range of 4.18 to 4.48 for Rea and 4.11 to 4.38 for Verlander),
Rea has posted the better underlying indicators this season (3.52 xERA, 16.2% K-BB%, 3.77 xFIP) compared to Verlander (3.72 xERA, 12.1% K-BB%, 4.15 xFIP). Rea throws his fastball harder than ever before (93.8 mph vs. 92.6 mph career), working in shorter stints.
Conversely, Verlander is living at 94.3 mph on his fastball — his lowest mark since 2013 — and his ERA estimators have climbed into the fours in recent seasons. Batters are chasing less than ever before against him (27.4% vs. 31.3% career).
To belabor some points from Monday’s slate, Patrick Bailey’s value is deemphasized with a smaller strike zone, making Chicago the significantly better defensive team in this matchup.
Chicago also has a much better offense, leading the NL to date (126 wRC+) while the Giants (95 wRC+) aren’t any better than they were last season (97 wRC+).
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (bet to -160)
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/matt56.jpg” linktext=”Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction, Pick, Odds for Tuesday, May 6″ link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/pittsburgh-pirates-vs-st-louis-cardinals-prediction-pick-odds-tuesday-may-6-qs”][/relatedarticle]
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Pirates vs. Cardinals
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pirates” awayslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/stl.png” homename=”Cardinals” homeslug=”st.-louis-cardinals” date=”Tuesday, May 6″ time=”7:45 p.m. ET” network=”FDSMW” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”-1.5″ col1awayline=”+143″ col1hometext=”+1.5″ col1homeline=”-170″ col2awaytext=”7″ col2hometext=”7″ col2awayline=”-120o / 100u” col2homeline=”-120o / 100u” col3awaytext=”-120″ col3hometext=”+100″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/463646_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars”][/gamematchup]
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. Matthew Liberatore (STL)
Despite posting a reduced strikeout rate (-8.3% vs. last season) while pitching to an ERA nearly a run higher than his rookie season, the underlying indicators for Paul Skenes (2.60 xERA, 109 Stuff+, 113 Pitching+, 3.49 botERA) are as good or better than his impressive debut campaign (2.53 xERA, 108 Stuff+, 115 Pitching+, 3.62 botERA).
Skenes is seemingly pitching to weak contact intentionally to work deeper into starts (23.5 batters faced per start vs. 22.3 last season).
Still, the Pirates‘ bullpen (24th in xFIP, 23rd in K-BB%) is always capable of blowing a lead for Skenes if their offense is lucky enough to score (79 wRC+, 29th in MLB).
Matthew Liberatore has shown tremendous growth in 2025, with career-best marks in xERA (2.94), xFIP (2.91 vs. 4.02 career), K-BB% (20.3% vs. 11.4% career), Pitching+ (105 vs. 96 career), and botERA (3.96 vs. 4.57 career) after mostly working out of the Cardinals‘ bullpen last season.
An improved slider has helped to neutralize right-handed hitters (2.95 xFIP, 20.6% K-BB% vs. 4.74 and 9.1% career), and drastically improved command (2.3% walk rate, 105 Location+) significantly raises Liberatore’s floor.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (bet to +110)
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Tigers vs. Rockies
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” awayname=”Tigers” awayslug=”detroit-tigers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” homename=”Rockies” homeslug=”colorado-rockies” date=”Tuesday, May 6″ time=”8:40 p.m. ET” network=”COLR” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”-1.5″ col1awayline=”-115″ col1hometext=”+1.5″ col1homeline=”-105″ col2awaytext=”9.5″ col2hometext=”9.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”-180″ col3hometext=”+152″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/463646_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars”][/gamematchup]
Jackson Jobe (DET) vs. Chase Dollander (COL)
Cooler temperatures into the 40s at first pitch (47 actual, 40 real feel) and 7-8 mph winds blowing in from left-center field should create a pitcher-friendly environment at Coors Field on Tuesday. This would lower my projection by more than a run and a half compared to a weather-neutral day in Denver.
This pitching matchup features arguably two of the top right-handed pitching prospects in the sport, with Jackson Jobe — the No. 3 selection in the 2021 draft — facing Chase Dollander, whom the Rockies selected ninth overall in 2023.
Dollander enters off the best outing of his MLB career, holding the Braves to one run while pitching into the sixth inning at home. ERA predictors (4.10 xFIP, 4.03 SIERA, 4.28 botERA) and a better-than-average 13.4% K-BB% suggest that Dollander is a league-average starting pitcher, if he can limit barrels and reduce his hard-hit rate (46.8%, 6.06 xERA).
Dollander averages 97.6 mph on his fastball and features two plus secondary pitches: a cutter (128 Stuff+, 19% usage) and curveball (124 Stuff+, 17% usage).
Still, on Tuesday, he left that start against the Braves with a cracked fingernail, which could affect his grip, or recur and force him to leave this start prematurely.
Jobe has a unicorn profile with five average or better offerings by Stuff+ (115 cutter, 107 four-seamer, 111 sinker, 112 changeup, 100 curveball), leading to a 3.62 xERA and 3.76 botERA despite mediocre strikeout and walk numbers (career 4.2% K-BB%).
Jobe has tinkered with his pitch mix throughout the season, reducing his four-seam fastball use (down from 38% in his first start to 22% in his past two starts) in exchange for additional sinkers and sliders (36% combined in his first start, 70% in his most recent).
The new mix should help him keep the ball on the ground, and pounding the zone and searching for weak contact against the Rockies — who rank dead-last in MLB with a 60 wRC+, 19 points behind the Pirates or any other team — is about as soft a matchup as any pitcher could hope for regardless of the venue.
Colorado has only had two above-average offensive contributors this season (Hunter Goodman, 112 wRC+ and Jordan Beck, 129 wRC+).
Pick: Under 9.5 (bet to -110)
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Mets vs. Diamondbacks
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” awayname=”Mets” awayslug=”new-york-mets” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/976480_dbacks.png” homename=”Diamondbacks” homeslug=”arizona-diamondbacks” date=”Tuesday, May 6″ time=”9:40 p.m. ET” network=”SNY” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-220″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”+180″ col2awaytext=”9″ col2hometext=”9″ col2awayline=”-120o / 100u” col2homeline=”-120o / 100u” col3awaytext=”-110″ col3hometext=”-110″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/463646_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars”][/gamematchup]
David Peterson (NYM) vs. Zac Gallen (ARI)
The Diamondbacks shut their roof for Monday’s matchup against the Mets, but plan to open the dome for Tuesday’s contest in near-perfect baseball weather in Phoenix (71 degrees at first pitch).
Depending upon the day, opening the roof at Chase Field can be worth an 8% increase to the run scoring environment for an individual game. While I don’t see that dramatic of an effect for Tuesday, the anticipated effect raised my projection from 9.29 to 9.57 runs — bet Over 9 to -110.
Both teams have had to deploy their bullpens aggressively in recent days — the Mets used Huascar Brazoban, Reid Garrett, and Edwin Diaz on consecutive days on Monday following a doubleheader on Sunday, while the Diamondbacks used Jose Castillo and Juan Morillo for the third time in four days, pitched Ryan Thompson on a back-to-back, and used up long reliever Tommy Henry in a 5-4 loss to the Mets.
Moreover, Arizona is currently down its two best relief pitchers — AJ Puk and Justin Martinez — leaving a relatively shaky group between Zac Gallen (3.80 xFIP, 4.57 botERA), whose velocity and pitch modeling metrics have been down significantly over the past two seasons (89 Stuff+ vs. 99 career). Gallen doesn’t have any offering grading higher than a 92 Stuff+ rating.
Additionally, the Mets lost both of their left-handed relievers — A.J. Minter and Danny Young — to season-ending injuries over the past week, severely weakening a bullpen that has been one of the most effective in baseball this season (2nd in xFIP, 6th in K-BB%).
Pick: Over 9 (bet to -110)
Sean Zerillo’s MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, May 6
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Chicago Cubs (-142, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -160)
- Mets/Diamondbacks, Over 8 (+100, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -110)
- New York Yankees -105, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to -115)
- Reds/Braves, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+115, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to +110)
- Tigers/Rockies, Under 9.5 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
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