Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, April 24.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-24-at-1.21.46%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”+803 Parlay on BetMGM” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1505746632&deeplinkId[1]=ML1505758623&deeplinkId[2]=ML1505759167&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author’s formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Thursday, April 24
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White Sox vs. Twins
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Shane Smith (CWS) vs. Chris Paddack (MIN)
Conditions in Minnesota should be pitcher friendly on Thursday afternoon — 52 degrees at first pitch and drizzling (with a real-feel temperature of 46 degrees) and 6-7 mph winds blowing in from center field.
The conditions triggered an Action Labs system for wind and weather, which has generated a 4.7% ROI since 2005:
My model projected this game for 7.42 runs; bet Under 8 to -112.
Chris Paddack has settled in after two abysmal outings (combined 13 runs allowed in 7 1/3 innings) to start his 2025 campaign. He limited the Braves and Tigers to two earned runs across 10 innings, with 11 strikeouts, five hits, and three walks allowed in his past two starts.
Projection systems place Paddcack closer to a league-average arm (projected FIP range of 3.94 to 4.25) than the No. 4 starter type results he’s produced over the past two years (4.81 xERA in 2024, 4.66 in 2025).
Pitching models love his command (116 Location+ vs. 109 career; 3.09 botERA vs. 3.49 career) across his entire arsenal, but Paddack’s changeup (103) grades out as his only above-average pitch by Stuff+.
As I discussed previously in this space, Shane Smith — the No. 1 pick in December’s Rule 5 draft — has one elite pitch: a filthy, hard changeup (averaging 90.5 mph in his MLB debut) that offers only a five mph separation relative to his fastball.
The changeup is a plus offering (103 Stuff+), but the remainder of Smith’s arsenal is below average (90 Stuff+ on his four-seamer, 94 slider, 88 curveball).
That said, he commands the fastball well (114 Location+) and projects as one of the White Sox better starting pitchers (projected FIP range of 4.17 to 4.69). Smith should take advantage of a soft matchup against a struggling Twins‘ offense (82 wRC+, 26th).
Pick: Under 8 (bet to -112)
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Orioles vs. Nationals
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Cade Povich (BAL) vs. MacKenzie Gore (WSH)
MacKenzie Gore is finally fulfilling his potential after getting picked third in the 2017 MLB draft.
Gore has posted a 31.1% K-BB% through five starts, nearly double his career average (16.2%). His xERA is down from 4.20 to 3.05, year over year, and his xFIP (2.30), Pitching+ rating (108), and botERA (3.19) are each career-best marks (averages of 3.93, 102, and 4.04, respectively).
Gore has typically shown reverse splits (career 4.01 xFIP, 13.3% K-BB% vs. lefties and 3.91 xFIP, 17.1% K-BB% vs. righties), but he is obliterating left-handed hitters this season (1.22 xFIP, 40.6% K-BB%), striking out 15 of the 32 lefties he’s faced.
Gore is throwing a slider 42% of the time to lefties, compared to 5% last season, at the expense of his cutter (down from 28% to 2%).
While his projections have improved in-season (current FIP range of 3.51 to 3.75), the current version of Gore could still outperform the most optimistic forecasts.
Conversely, Cade Povich (projected FIP range of 4.12 to 4.55) has shown an average K-BB% (10.2%) and below-average ERA indicators early in his career (4.86 xFIP, 4.34 botERA).
Povich has below-average command, and no pitch in his arsenal has a Stuff+ figure higher than 96.
There’s a substantial difference between these bullpens, and I’m not particularly interested in sweating Washington’s relievers with a slight lead (7.09 ERA, 30th in MLB; 4.70 xFIP, 27th; 7.1% K-BB%, 27th).
I’d consider betting the Nationals on the full game moneyline at plus money (projected -108), but I prefer their F5 or first five innings moneyline, up to -120 (projected -130).
Pick: Nationals F5 Moneyline (bet to -120)
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Pirates vs. Angels
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Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) vs. Tyler Anderson (LAA)
While Carmen Mlodzinski has produced underwhelming results through four starts (7.41 ERA, 5.01 xERA), pitching models and luck categories suggest that he’s a substantially better arm (101 Pitching+, 3.96 botERA, 3.98 xFIP).
Mlodzinski has three potential above-average pitches (105 Stuff+ on his slider, which gets misclassified along with his sweeper, 109 on his sinker, and 102 on his changeup) and a high ground-ball tilt (career 47.3%).
Tyler Anderson was one of the bigger luckbox cases in MLB last season (3.81 ERA, 4.37 xERA, 4.85 xFIP), and he’s continued BABIP suppression (.157 vs. .258 in 2024 and .282 career) and maintained a high strand rate (96%) vs. 75.8% in 2024 and 72.6% career) into 2025.
Anderson has a solid changeup (103 Stuff+) but offers below-average command (13.6% walk rate and 95 Location+ vs. 7.7% and 99 career). Despite solid results (3.63 ERA over 35 starts and 201 innings) since the start of last season, projections remain extremely sour as to his true-talent level (projected FIP range of 4.52 to 4.93).
Pick: Pirates Moneyline (bet to +123)
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Rays vs. Diamondbacks
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Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs. Corbin Burnes (ARI)
Corbin Burnes peaked during the 2020-2022 seasons, posting a 2.62 ERA, 2.66 xFIP, and a 26.9% K-BB% across 70 starts.
His performance declined over the past two seasons (3.15 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, and a 17% K-BB% across 64 starts), but Burnes has fallen further in 2025, showing decreased pitch modeling metrics (Stuff+ down from 113 to 103; Pitching+ down from 119 to 106; botERA up from 3.43 to 4.08) as his K-BB% has halved to 8.7%, and his xERA has increased north of five (5.01 vs. 3.34 and 3.38 the past two seasons).
It’s worth noting that Bunres’ pitch modeling metrics have been significantly better in his last two starts (129 and 120 Pitching+; combined 2.85 botERA) than his first two (89 and 87 Pitching+; combined 5.30 botERA).
Still, I rate Drew Rasmussen as the more efficient pitcher (2.47 xERA, 2.56 botERA, 111 Pitching+), and projections (projected FIP range of 2.71 to 3.35) tend to agree (projected range of 3.23 to 3.92 for Burnes).
Rasmussen has five above-average pitches by Stuff models (108 Stuff+ on his cutter, 115 on his fastball, 118 on his sinker, 118 on his slider, and 106 on his curveball), paired with above-average command (a career 6.5% walk rate) and a high ground-ball rate (a career 48.3%).
If he weren’t a year removed from injury (28 2/3 innings last season) — with concerns about his workload (projected for only 71 to 112 additional innings on top of the 20 2/3 he’s thrown) — Ramussen would be considered a significant AL Cy Young contender.
Pick: Rays F5 Moneyline (bet to +105) | Rays Moneyline (bet to +11o)
Sean Zerillo’s MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, April 24
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- Pittsburgh Pirates (+126, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +123)
- Tampa Bay Rays F5 (+110, 0.25u) at BetMGM (bet to +105)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+115, 0.5u) at BetRivers (bet to +111)
- Washington Nationals F5 (-104, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -120)
- White Sox/Twins, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -112)
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