Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and Opening Day picks for Thursday, March 27.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some MLB betting notes and analysis. For Opening Day, I’m tackling eight games, including Brewers vs Yankees, Orioles vs Blue Jays, Phillies vs Nationals, Angels vs White Sox and Athletics vs Mariners.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
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MLB Predictions & Prop Picks for Opening Day
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyy.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/phi.png” secondfullname=”Washington Nationals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” secondfullname=”Chicago White Sox” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” secondfullname=”Houston Astros” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#6″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cle.png” secondfullname=”Kansas City Royals” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/kc.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#7″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Twins” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/min.png” secondfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/stl.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#8″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oak.png” secondfullname=”Seattle Mariners” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sea.png”][/teammatchup] |
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Brewers vs. Yankees Preview, Over/Under Pick
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Freddy Peralta vs. Carlos Rodon
Temperatures will be a bit chilly (50 degrees at first pitch) on Thursday in the Bronx, and both the Brewers and Yankees rate as strong defensive teams in my model, lowering my projected total to 7.27 runs for Thursday’s opener — bet the Under down to 7.5 at even money. Take the Brewers if their line moves to +140, otherwise pass on a side.
Milwaukee finished third in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and fourth in Outs Above Average (OAA) last season. Joey Ortiz (+1 DRS career at shortstop, +5 at third base) can cover for the departed Willy Adames (+1 OAA, -16 DRS last season) up the middle.
The Yankees finished 10th and 12th, respectively, by the same advanced defensive stats, but replacing Aaron Judge (-9 in 903 innings in 2024) with Cody Bellinger in center (-5 in 2,986 innings in CF since 2021), Juan Soto (-career -12 DRS) with Judge in right, Gleyber Torres (-11 in 2024) at second with Jazz Chisholm Jr. (career +6 at second base) and Jazz at third with Oswaldo Cabrera (+9 DRS in 706 innings at third base) upgrades their alignment at four positions, with Anthony Volpe (+15 in 2023, +6 in 2024) starring up the middle.
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/03/Freddy-Peralta.jpg” linktext=”Brewers vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds, Opening Day Parlay Today” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers-vs-new-york-yankees-prediction-pick-odds-thursday-march-27-qs”][/relatedarticle]
The Yankees smashed right-handed pitching last season (1st in wRC+), but losing Soto in free agency and Giancarlo Stanton to the IL downgrades their lineup by more than 10% relative to league average. Milwaukee performed better against righties (10th) than lefties (15th) last season, and I view them as a league-average offense against lefties in 2024.
Both starting pitchers can be enigmatic. I prefer Freddy Peralta by about a quarter of a run on a season-long ERA; he extended to 91 pitches in spring training, and he should be a bit more stretched out than Carlos Rodon (maxed at 77 pitches in spring).
Still, both teams are off on Friday before finishing their series over the weekend, and in a tight game, both managers are extra incentivized to deploy their high-leverage arms. Devin Williams facing his former team in a tight spot is precisely the drama we need on Opening Day.
Pick: Under 8 (bet to -118 or 7.5, +100)
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Orioles vs. Blue Jays Over/Under Prediction
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Zach Eflin vs. Jose Berrios
With temperatures in the 40s in Toronto this week, you can expect that the Rogers Centre roof will be shut on Thursday.
I set the total for this matchup at 7.72 runs; bet the Under to 8 (+100). Wait for +105 or better on Toronto.
The Blue Jays finished as the No. 1 team by DRS last season (+102) and ranked fifth in OAA, but they upgraded their unit further by acquiring Andres Gimenez, who leads all second basemen with 58 DRS at the keystone over the past three seasons (20 more than any other player). Gimenez ranks second amongst all defenders in DRS over that span, behind his new teammate, Daulton Varsho (+72, currently on IL), and ahead of Ke’Bryan Hayes (56).
Baltimore finished as a below-average defensive team in 2024 (19th in DRS, 21st in OAA) but projects closer to league average in 2025. The O’s also have an elite bullpen (T-3rd in my rankings) and a significant advantage in the bullpen matchup (projected 22nd) and starting pitching matchup against the Blue Jays.
I rate Zach Eflin (projected FIP range of 3.83 to 4.00) as a No. 2 pitcher, and Jose Berrios (projected FIP range of 4.33 to 4.61, 96 Pitching+) closer to league average or No. 4 starter. Interestingly, Berrios has always shown strong home-road splits (xFIP 0.7 higher, K-BB% 5% worse on the road for his career), but neutralized those results in his 2024 sample.
Still, with Gunnar Henderson on the IL for the Orioles, the offensive matchup between these two lineups becomes far more comparable, provided Bo Bichette bounces back from a miserable 2024 season (71 wRC+ vs. 124 in 2023, 129 in 2022) for the Jays.
Pick: Under 8.5 (bet to -118 or 8, +100)
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Phillies vs. Nationals Moneyline Pick; Zack Wheeler Prop Bet
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Zack Wheeler vs. MacKenzie Gore
Opening Day favorites coming off a postseason appearance are 90-38 (70.3%, 17.1% ROI), per the Action Labs database, winning by an average margin of nearly two runs per game (1.97) and producing a profit of $2,185 for a consistent $100 bettor:
These teams typically have 1) a better-than-average No. 1 starter and 2) a handful of extremely effective high-leverage relievers — and all of those elite pitchers tend to pitch in their Opening Day games.
Six favorites (Astros, Braves, Orioles, Phillies, Royals, Yankees) fit that criteria for Thursday; two of those teams (Orioles and Yankees) lost their planned Opening Day starter (Grayson Rodriguez and Gerrit Cole) and both the Blue Jays and Brewers are on my watchlist for Opening Day underdog bets (at +105 and +140, respectively).
The Nationals are the only team I currently project moneyline value on, marketwide; I set their chances around 45% as home underdogs on Opening Day, and they are listed at +145 (40.8% implied) at nearly every book as of Wednesday afternoon.
Considering I bet the Nationals’ win total Over 69.5 (no value now at 72.5) and the Phillies Under 91.5 remains my favorite win total Under wager (projected 84.7) at current odds, I’d expect to find myself betting on more of these head-to-head matchups.
Washington likely has the worst bullpen in the National League — potentially the worst in baseball — and I’d nominate them as the team likely to produce our grossest moneyline beat of the season.
However, the Nats’ young offensive core is equally fun to watch, because they don’t strike out (second in K% behind the Padres over the final two months of 2024), and they run the bases aggressively, attempting 20 more steals (122) than any other team in the second half of the season (6th in baserunning value on the year).
I’m comfortable backing MacKenzie Gore, who jumped a level with a velocity bump (fastball from 95 to 96 mph, slider from 88.5 to 90.6 mph) last season. He could continue to grow into an All-Star-caliber pitcher with better command of three potential plus pitches.
As long as the walk rate remains near 9%, Gore still rates closer to a league-average arm, and well below an ace-tier pitcher like Zack Wheeler, who made significant strides to control the running game during his first four seasons in Philadelphia (13 SB, 11 CS) after baserunners ran wild during his time with the Mets (39 SB, 9 CS).
Still, with the pitch clock, Wheeler allowed eight steals on 11 attempts in 2024; I suspect the Nationals, who ran more aggressively than any other team in the second half (1.79 attempts per game in the first half, 1.9 in the second half), will continue to force their opponents into mistakes with the same offensive core.
Jacob Young at +450 (97th percentile in sprint speed) Dylan Crews at +230 (93rd percentile), 6-foot-7 James Wood (85th percentile) at +550, and CJ Abrams (81st percentile) at +370 are each worth considering for steals props on a daily basis — and all are worthy options to juice up Nationals-oriented SGPs with Opening Day promos.
I also like Wheeler Under 6.5 strikeouts; Action Labs has him at 5.8 for Opening Day.
Wheeler is a bit more sinker/pitch-to-contact reliant early in the season, before ramping up his four-seam usage, velocity, and strikeout rate closer to the postseason. More importantly, his pitch count generally stays around 90 until his third start of the year (71, 75 in final two spring outings), and, aside from Paul Dejong (career 27.5% K%), Nationals hitters continue to strikeout at one of the lower rates in baseball.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline (bet to +140) | Zack Wheeler, Under 6.5 Strikeouts (bet to -160)
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Angels vs. White Sox Over/Under Pick
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Yusei Kikuchi vs. Sean Burke
I bet Yusei Kikuchi at long odds to win AL Cy Young, and did the same with Sean Burke to win AL Rookie of the Year, so its not unsurprising to find myself on theis Opening Day under despite a matchup between two of my projected bottom-eight bullpens, who finished 29th (White Sox, 4.55) and 30th (Angels, 4.58) in xFIP last season. I have the Angels’ pen ranked 24th going into this season, and the White Sox 30th.
Burke flashed better pitch modeling metrics (101 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+) than pitchers considered to be significantly better pitching prospects in the AL (Zebby Matthews, Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter), with an above-average fastball/changeup combination. He got roughed up in spring, but has been working to develop a breaking ball to counteract left-handed hitters (10 K, 0 BB in 26 PA vs. righties and 12 K, 7 BB in 50 PA vs. lefties).
ERA projections for 2025 put Burke anywhere between 3.97 and 4.73. Still, I lean toward the more optimistic end of that range, and his projection from OOPSY, which relies more on pitch modeling metrics, projects Burke as a league-average pitcher. He could post a two-WAR season as a rookie.
Kikuchi tied with Tarik Skubal for the second-best K-BB% in the AL over the second half of 2024 (24.8%), while posting a career-best 31.1% K% after modifying his approach to right-handed hitters (3.23 xFIP vs. 4.07 career vs. right-handed hitters). He added a sweeper this offseason and has looked electric at times this spring.
A matchup with the White Sox (30th vs. righties and lefties in 2024, 75 and 74 wRC+, respectively), who I project for an 81 wRC+ against southpaws, is as soft a landing spot as you can get for Opening Day.
In chilly weather (48 degrees at first pitch), I set this total at 7.2 runs; bet the Under to 7.5 (-102). And wait for +135 or higher before considering backing the White Sox.
Pick: Under 8 (bet to 7.5, -102)
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Mets vs. Astros Bets, Props
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Clay Holmes vs. Framber Valdez
With rain in the forecast, the roof should be closed in Houston on Thursday.
I set the F5 (first five innings) total at 3.6 runs, and the full game total at 7.23; bet the Unders to 4.5 (-135) and 7.5 (+100), respectively.
Both teams should struggle to hit homers early as Framber Valdez (62.5% career ground-ball rate, 0.73 HR/9) and Clay Holmes (66.3% career GB%, 0.53 HR/9) both keep the ball on the ground.
Holmes could immediately be one of the more effective starting pitchers in the National League, adding a kick-change to his arsenal that should help to neutralize left-handed hitters (career 2.9 xFIP vs. righties, 4.3 vs. lefties). He struck out 23 of the 72 hitters he’s faced this spring, good for a 32% strikeout rate.
While that’s a limited sample, strikeout rate does stabilize much more quickly than other datapoints, and if Holmes maintains that rate through April, he’s going to be an incredibly valuable signing by David Stearns.
More Kick Changes from Clay Holmes.
Gonna be one of the best new pitches in MLB this season. pic.twitter.com/PNBZ73tu9t
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 21, 2025
Holmes ramped up to 88 pitches in his final spring outing. Action Labs projects him for 4.6 strikeouts on Opening Day; bet the over on strikeouts to 4.5 (+125).
Concerning the full game total, I’m skeptical of Houston’s bullpen quality; they have the worst bullpen (project 23rd) of teams that I project for a winning record. This is a good spot to split the Under wagers between the F5 and full game markets.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (bet to -135) | Under 8 (bet to -118 or 7.5, +100) | Clay Holmes, Over 3.5 Strikeouts (bet to 4.5, +125)
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Guardians vs. Royals Total Pick; Tanner Bibee Prop
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Tanner Bibee vs. Cole Ragans
Fans in Kansas City should have perfect baseball weather for Opening Say (77 degrees at first pitch), with 12 mph winds blowing out to left field.
These conditions triggered an Action Labs system (6.5% ROI since 2005, 0.97 run margin) for Overs at Kauffman Stadium — a park which typically plays as the fourth-best offensive venue in MLB (108 run scoring factor, or +8%):
I set the total at 7.8 runs, and would bet Over 7.5 to -102.
Both teams remain solid defensively after finishing as top-seven teams by DRS last season. Still, Cleveland trading Andres Gimenez (second in DRS among all players over the past three years), weakens its middle infield, and I expect regression for the bullpen (projected 9th for 2025) after finishing second by both xFIP and K-BB% last season.
The Royals proved extremely difficult to strike out last season, especially at home (17.9% K%, first in MLB at home; 6th on the road at 20.9%) and with both teams getting Friday off, I don’t expect Tanner Bibee or Cole Ragans — who both topped out at 83 pitches in spring — to surpass 90 pitches on Thursday, even if they are effective.
Bet Bibee under 4.5 strikeouts at even money or better.
Pick: Over 7.5 (bet to -102) | Tanner Bibee, Under 4.5 Strikeouts (bet to +100)
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Twins vs. Cardinals Moneyline Bet
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Pablo Lopez vs. Sonny Gray
I projected Pablo Lopez as a better pitcher than Sonny Gray one year ago, but their 2024 seasons were very different. Lopez saw his pitch modeling metrics dip from 100 Stuff+ and 113 Pitching+ to 94 and 107, respectively, and his K-BB% decreased by three percent.
Conversely, Gray’s Pitching+ increased by five points (from 100 to 105) as his K-BB% increased to a career best 24.4% (+7.4% over 2023).
Gray’s velocity has been down a tick in spring, and he has reportedly battled flu-like symptoms over the past week. He stretched out to 81 pitches on March 21 and should be ready for Opening Day, but the Cardinals can use up their bullpen if needed with an off-day on Friday.
Minnesota has the bullpen advantage and I project its bullpen as the best in baseball this year. The Cardinals have elite high-leverage relievers in Ryan Helsley, Jojo Romero, and Ryan Fernandez, but their depth is lacking compared to the unit that finished 10th in xFIP last season (projected 16th in 2024).
Still, the Cardinals are the much better team both defensively (13th vs. 2th in DRS in 2024), and on the basepaths (19th vs. 26th in BSR in 2024). Masyn Winn finished first among shortstops in DRS last season, Victor Scott (99th percentile sprint speed) provides game-changing speed, and Nolan Arenado could have a bounce-back year in his age-34 campaign after reversing his bat speed decline (potential 4 mph increase) this offseason.
Conversely, despite his defensive reputation, Carlos Correa has rated as a below-average shortstop in each of the past two seasons (-5 DRS combined), and aside from Willi Castro, there are few net positive defenders or players with above average speed on the Twins’ roster.
Bet St. Louis to -106, and play the Under to 7 (+100).
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (bet to -106) | Under 7.5 (bet to -118 or 7, +100)
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Athletics vs. Mariners F5 Prediction
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Luis Severino vs. Logan Gilbert
The Mariners posted the worst strikeout rate in MLB over the first half of last season, but improved to 22nd by shaving five percent off that K% in the second half. I’d expect their 2025 lineup to push closer to 20th rather than fall to 30th again.
Luis Severino blossomed with the Mets last season by pitching to contact more often, incorporating a sinker nearly 25% of the time, leading to a 46% ground-ball rate, his highest since 2017. Still, increased sinker usage led to a reduced strikeout rate (21.2%) — roughly 6-8% below his peak seasons with the Yankees, which is worth about 50 fewer strikeouts over a full season of starts.
After signing a multiyear deal and maxing out at 79 pitches in spring, the A’s aren’t going to push Severino past 90 pitches on Thursday. Action Labs set his strikeout prop at 5.3; I personally had him at 4.8, and would bet Under 5 at even money or better.
Moreover, I bet on Logan Gilbert to win the AL Cy Young after he made three adjustments since last season: (1) changing his arm slot and delivery, leading to an uptick in fastball velocity (+0.9 mph); (2) modifying his pitch mix, decreasing his four-seam fastball usage down near 30% — less than half the usage rate from his rookie year (60.9%); (3) doubling the usage of his newfound sweeper from 7.6% in the first half to 16.4% in the second half.
Gilbert led the AL in K-BB% (27.7%) over the second half of last season and has worked on two new offerings this spring.
He has shown excellent command, ranking in the 95th percentile for walk rate over the past two seasons, and I project him as the third-best pitcher in the AL (behind Jacob deGrom and Tarik Skubal), but the gap continues to shrink as Gilbert improves.
I set the Mariners around -185 favorites in the first half of this game; bet Seattle’s F5 moneyline to -170.
Pick: Mariners F5 Moneyline (bet to -170) | Luis Severino, Under 5.5 Strikeouts (bet to 5, +100)
Sean Zerillo’s MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, March 27
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- Angels/White Sox, Under 8 (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to 7.5 (-102)
- Brewers/Yankees, Under 8 (-105 0.5u) at BetMGM; bet to -118 or 7.5, +100
- Clay Holmes, Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-165, 0.1u) at BetMGM (bet to -175 or 4.5, +120)
- Guardians/Royals, Over 7.5 (+100, 0.5u) at Fanatics (bet to -102)
- Luis Severino, Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+102, 0.2u) at BetRivers (bet to 5, +100)
- Mets/Astros, F5 Under 4.5 (-120, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to -135)
- Mets/Astros, Under 8 (-102, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -118 or 7.5, +100)
- Orioles/Blue Jays, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Fanatics; bet to -118 or 8, +100
- Pirates/Marlins, Under 6.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Fanatics; bet to -112
- Pittsburgh Pirates F5 (-150, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to -150)
- Reds/Giants, Under 7.5 (+100, 0.5u) at Fanatics (bet to -105)
- Seattle Mariners F5 (-156, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to -170)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+100, 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to -106
- Tanner Bibee, Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100, 0.1u) at BetMGM (bet to +100)
- Twins/Cardinals, Under 7.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Fanatics; bet to -118 or 7 (+100)
- Washington Nationals (+150, 0.5u) at Fanatics; bet to +140
- Zack Wheeler, Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-143, 0.1u) at BetRivers; bet to -160
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